This time, it feels different
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Re: This time, it feels different
#2[deleted]
Re: This time, it feels different
#3Very good piece. It really does feel different this time. Lots of McKinsey BS about job creation...but where?
Re: This time, it feels different
#4Every few years a new technology goes mainstream and quickly changes the world around us rather fundamentally.
I’ve lived through the web in 1995. Google in 2000. Web 2.0 in 2005. Smartphones in 2009. Now it’s generative AI in 2023.
Every time, there’s an argument about whether it’s the end of the world or a total nothingburger. Every time, industry leaders are knocked off their perch. Every time, there are surprise developments and innovations, both positive and negative. Every time, within a few years, the new technology goes from seeming magical even in the wealthiest and most advanced locations to commonplace in a rural farm in the developing world.
It’s an incredible, terrifying and fascinating time to be alive.
Re: This time, it feels different
#5There are definitely interesting times ahead. What surprised me with ChatGPT is the impact of the interface. The quality of the responses are essential up to some threshold, but the chat interface arguably had an even bigger impact.
I also remember having the same questions in my last job (in logistics) where potential customers wanted to know how we use AI. This sometimes seemed more important than whether our results would enable them to cut costs. Fascinating.
Re: This time, it feels different
#6Every few years a new technology goes mainstream and quickly changes the world around us rather fundamentally. I’ve lived through the web in 1995. Google in 2000. Web 2.0 in 2005. Smartphones in 2009. Now it’s generative AI in 2023. Every time, there’s an argument about whether it’s the end of the world or a total nothingburger. Every time, industry leaders are knocked off their perch. Every time, there are surprise…
> Every time, industry leaders are knocked off their perch.
Is that really true? The two largest corporations in the world by market cap are Apple and Microsoft, both founded in the 1970s.
Re: This time, it feels different
#7From the article -
> If a single dumb, stochastic, probabilistic, hallucinating, snake oil LLM with a chat UI offered by one organisation can have such a viral, organic, and widespread adoption ... imagine what better, faster, more “intelligent” systems to follow in the wake of what exists today would be capable of doing.
Re: This time, it feels different
#8The haiku at the end is not a haiku, technically.
As a non-business person, I imagine that folks would typically want some correctness guarantees, which seem near-impossible with today's LLMs. What kind of business use-cases do they enable? Probably a failure of imagination on my part, but I can't think of many tasks that can be done consistently well by AI that can't also be done with simpler software.
Re: This time, it feels different
#9Every few years a new technology goes mainstream and quickly changes the world around us rather fundamentally. I’ve lived through the web in 1995. Google in 2000. Web 2.0 in 2005. Smartphones in 2009. Now it’s generative AI in 2023. Every time, there’s an argument about whether it’s the end of the world or a total nothingburger. Every time, industry leaders are knocked off their perch. Every time, there are surprise…
> Every time, industry leaders are knocked off their perch. Is that really true? The two largest corporations in the world by market cap are Apple and Microsoft, both founded in the 1970s.
Also the wealth of the average worker has been stagnant since the 70's - computers, the internet, etc came and brought tons of wealth, and didn't raise the standard of living.
I've never thought about computers that way - they got here, and didn't make everyone's lives better - they just accelerated wealth concentration in the top 1%.
Re: This time, it feels different
#10Every few years a new technology goes mainstream and quickly changes the world around us rather fundamentally. I’ve lived through the web in 1995. Google in 2000. Web 2.0 in 2005. Smartphones in 2009. Now it’s generative AI in 2023. Every time, there’s an argument about whether it’s the end of the world or a total nothingburger. Every time, industry leaders are knocked off their perch. Every time, there are surprise…
> Every time, industry leaders are knocked off their perch. Is that really true? The two largest corporations in the world by market cap are Apple and Microsoft, both founded in the 1970s.
Would you call Apple "industry leaders" pre-2000s, though?
But anyway, they didn't specify all industry leaders, and it's pretty solid that many leaders were knocked off their perches.