ChatGPT can help yield more accurate stock trading predictions

It might just be but the conclusion paragraphs read like they were written by LLM. Extremely long/verbose. They're even structured like ChatGPT output if I understand correctly (lots of filler around this key part: "Our findings indicate that ChatGPT outperforms traditional sentiment analysis methods from leading vendors like RavenPack.")

I also don't see where the long-short criteria is defined for Figure 1: Cumulative Returns of Investing 1$ (Without Transaction Costs). How do you know when to flip between long and short? Moving average crossover?

Re: ChatGPT can help yield more accurate stock trading predictions – study

#5

Post by user3939382 » Tue, Apr 18, 2023, 2:22 PM UTC

We have very sophisticated technical forecasting algorithms. I doubt ChatGPT could improve there. Where it may be excellent though is in “sentiment analysis” which plays a role in forecasting.

Re: ChatGPT can help yield more accurate stock trading predictions – study

#6

Post by warrenmiller » Tue, Apr 18, 2023, 2:28 PM UTC

Maybe not but it might be able to tell you when to stop trading, which can be very useful.

Re: ChatGPT can help yield more accurate stock trading predictions – study

#7

Post by scotty79 » Tue, Apr 18, 2023, 2:32 PM UTC

user3939382 wrote: post #5

We have very sophisticated technical forecasting algorithms. I doubt ChatGPT could improve there. Where it may be excellent though is in “sentiment analysis” which plays a role in forecasting.

I wonder why despite all of this, nearly all active money management funds perform below S&P.

Re: ChatGPT can help yield more accurate stock trading predictions – study

#8

Post by carlmr » Tue, Apr 18, 2023, 2:33 PM UTC

castis wrote: post #3

Can ChatGPT predict all future world events and all the overall reactions to them? I'd easily pay $5 a month for that service.

If everyone uses ChatGPT, it might be able to influence world events enough to be right.

Re: ChatGPT can help yield more accurate stock trading predictions – study

#9

Post by themodelplumber » Tue, Apr 18, 2023, 2:33 PM UTC

That's pretty cool if it helps, more for the (already impossibly gigantic) analysis tools pile.

It's too bad that prediction is functionally overrated in trading anyway, and the overrating is even worse when it's being done by beginners.

Everybody wants an edge on the future, but few can hold a really solid trading plan together over a significant amount of time. Especially when they've already even blown up an account, etc.

You can make a pretty good argument that things like emotional dynamics and emotional leverage at a personal level are at least as important as prediction, but maybe more if you consider that you can find a reasonable predictive model built on something as valid as mean regression after a minute's searching around.

The experiences shared in the _Wizards_ books are pretty remarkable in this way.

Re: ChatGPT can help yield more accurate stock trading predictions – study

#10

Post by avg_dev » Tue, Apr 18, 2023, 2:33 PM UTC

castis wrote: post #3

Can ChatGPT predict all future world events and all the overall reactions to them? I'd easily pay $5 a month for that service.

i dunno. that's a little steep. i'd go as high as $2.49