Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days
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Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days
#2[deleted]
Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days
#3How many bitcoins can I bet? Balaji is offering to sell a put on BTC with a $1M strike price (which is ITM by $974k) and the underlying is at ~$26k, 90 days to expiration. All you have to do to buy the put is put up 1 BTC ($26k) to potentially win $974k.
I don’t think he thought this all the way through.
Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days
#4How many bitcoins can I bet? Balaji is offering to sell a put on BTC with a $1M strike price (which is ITM by $974k) and the underlying is at ~$26k, 90 days to expiration. All you have to do to buy the put is put up 1 BTC ($26k) to potentially win $974k. I don’t think he thought this all the way through.
I think he is saying if it hyper inflates (they need to agree upon exact criteria) then he gets his 1M back + 1BTC. I don't think he is saying 1BTC > 1M USD.
Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days
#5How many bitcoins can I bet? Balaji is offering to sell a put on BTC with a $1M strike price (which is ITM by $974k) and the underlying is at ~$26k, 90 days to expiration. All you have to do to buy the put is put up 1 BTC ($26k) to potentially win $974k. I don’t think he thought this all the way through.
I think he is saying if it hyper inflates (they need to agree upon exact criteria) then he gets his 1M back + 1BTC. I don't think he is saying 1BTC > 1M USD.
Obviously he’d get his $1M back, why wouldn’t he? I never said he wouldn’t…
He is selling a BTC put that expires in 90 days and is worth $800-900k for $26k, that’s all I said.
Balaji is betting the hyperinflation makes the BTC worth more than $1M hyper inflated US dollars. If hyperinflation happens, the BTC/USD pair will go up in dollar value.
Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days
#6Hyperinflation is usually defined as an increase of 50% monthly (i.e. from 100% to 150%).
x40 in 90 days is in increase of 240% monthly (i.e. from 100% to 340%).
So it's a lot of inflation. This is not unheard, but it's very high and usually happens in countries with bigger problems. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation#Notable_hyperin...
[Hi from Argentina, our peak was in July 1989 with 196% (i.e. from 100% to 296%), but the peak was short, we didn't have three months with 200% of mensual inflation. See the graph in https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hiperinflaci%C3%B3n_argentina_...]
Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days
#7How many bitcoins can I bet? Balaji is offering to sell a put on BTC with a $1M strike price (which is ITM by $974k) and the underlying is at ~$26k, 90 days to expiration. All you have to do to buy the put is put up 1 BTC ($26k) to potentially win $974k. I don’t think he thought this all the way through.
wonder if there's a way to pool funds like some kind of ethereum contract. I know ethereum won't talk to bitcoin, but maybe there's a way to do it?
Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days
#8How many bitcoins can I bet? Balaji is offering to sell a put on BTC with a $1M strike price (which is ITM by $974k) and the underlying is at ~$26k, 90 days to expiration. All you have to do to buy the put is put up 1 BTC ($26k) to potentially win $974k. I don’t think he thought this all the way through.
wonder if there's a way to pool funds like some kind of ethereum contract. I know ethereum won't talk to bitcoin, but maybe there's a way to do it?
There's something called WBTC[1]. It's very popular.
[1]: https://wbtc.network
Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days
#9[dead]
Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days
#10Just how out of touch is this guy? 50% inflation MoM within the next 90 days? Does he not understand the multiple system shocks that would need to take place for that to even come close to reality?
Balaji, please - get out of your bubble. Go talk to your neighbors. They're all concerned about where to go for their kids spring break, the next episode of Mandalorian, and whether or not their bracket is still in contention.
Let's game out what it would take for 50% inflation MoM -- you'd need severe supply issues up and down for every possible good, including goods created domestically. You'd need the Fed to fire up the printing presses in a way that surpasses even 2008, which, good luck on that one. You'd need interest rates to go negative. You'd need the real estate market to do a 180 from "nothing's really selling right now" to "people can't buy houses fast enough". You'd need a confluence of black swan events to happen globally in order to knock the dollar from being a reserve currency. How does that possibly happen?
Just dumb, all around.