I don't think people understand the monumental changes coming to software
1–10 of 32 posts
Re: I don't think people understand the monumental changes coming to software
#2Per Kernighan, debugging is 2X harder. If the AI jockeys don't understand what they're being given, man, it's going to be humorous watching them putting out fires. And how can statistically fit models exceed their training set w/o going random? How is AI going to string together equations to do physics or engineering? They're bloody squiggly symbols and letters.
And the marketplace still isn't interested in fixing bugs over "oooh, shiny", so my concerns might never be addressed.
Re: I don't think people understand the monumental changes coming to software
#3> AI is the next 100x productivity boost.
I do not agree with this statement. There is totally no progress in AI since cryptowinter. Just there are too much people with always-online smartphones, so governments considered this field as too big to be out of their control. And it leads to 100x increase of no-brain programming job where everything what is needed from that kind of programmers - to fight against users.
The author is right about big changes is coming, but not the changes he is writing about.
Re: I don't think people understand the monumental changes coming to software
#4>The last major productivity boost in software was OSS. Each of those steps was 10-100x boost but then it stopped...
I don't think this author understand what is a productivity boost. OSS is a development model, it didn't turn into any "productivity boost", any more than the general technology level (including mainly proprietary technology) offered.
>Programmers will command armies of software agents to build increasingly complex software in insane record times. Non-programmers will also be able to use these agents to get software tasks done. Everyone in the world will be at least John Carmack-level software capable.
/rolls eyes
>At Replit, we're building an AI pair programmer that uses the IDE like a human does and has full access to all the tooling, open-source software, and the internet.
A, OK, this is building up commercial hype. Makes sense now.
Re: I don't think people understand the monumental changes coming to software
#5Per Kernighan, debugging is 2X harder. If the AI jockeys don't understand what they're being given, man, it's going to be humorous watching them putting out fires. And how can statistically fit models exceed their training set w/o going random? How is AI going to string together equations to do physics or engineering? They're bloody squiggly symbols and letters. And the marketplace still isn't interested in fixing bu…
"Oooh, shiny" that doesn't work has a very short run in the marketplace.
Re: I don't think people understand the monumental changes coming to software
#6> The last major productivity boost in software was OSS. Each of those steps was 10-100x boost but then it stopped... I don't think this author understand what is a productivity boost. OSS is a development model, it didn't turn into any "productivity boost", any more than the general technology level (including mainly proprietary technology) offered. > Programmers will command armies of software agents to build incre…
OSS allows really hard pieces of software to be built, most of FOSS is unable to be built if not FOSS.
What is the biggest and/or hardest proprietary project? Windows7+? Modern chipset including CPU? Apple jail? And what will happen with this technology if all the source code leaks somehow, don't you believe it will become 10x-100x better by some measures?
Re: I don't think people understand the monumental changes coming to software
#7Per Kernighan, debugging is 2X harder. If the AI jockeys don't understand what they're being given, man, it's going to be humorous watching them putting out fires. And how can statistically fit models exceed their training set w/o going random? How is AI going to string together equations to do physics or engineering? They're bloody squiggly symbols and letters. And the marketplace still isn't interested in fixing bu…
Imagine if the AI can provide both a program and a machine-verifiable proof of correctness though. Then all you have to manually verify is that the proof proves the right thing.
Re: I don't think people understand the monumental changes coming to software
#8Per Kernighan, debugging is 2X harder. If the AI jockeys don't understand what they're being given, man, it's going to be humorous watching them putting out fires. And how can statistically fit models exceed their training set w/o going random? How is AI going to string together equations to do physics or engineering? They're bloody squiggly symbols and letters. And the marketplace still isn't interested in fixing bu…
Imagine if the AI can provide both a program and a machine-verifiable proof of correctness though. Then all you have to manually verify is that the proof proves the right thing.
How will the AI overcome the halting problem?
Re: I don't think people understand the monumental changes coming to software
#9Per Kernighan, debugging is 2X harder. If the AI jockeys don't understand what they're being given, man, it's going to be humorous watching them putting out fires. And how can statistically fit models exceed their training set w/o going random? How is AI going to string together equations to do physics or engineering? They're bloody squiggly symbols and letters. And the marketplace still isn't interested in fixing bu…
Imagine if the AI can provide both a program and a machine-verifiable proof of correctness though. Then all you have to manually verify is that the proof proves the right thing.
So the only thing a developer have to deliver is an unambiguous specification of what the program is supposed to do!
Re: I don't think people understand the monumental changes coming to software
#10> The last major productivity boost in software was OSS. Each of those steps was 10-100x boost but then it stopped... I don't think this author understand what is a productivity boost. OSS is a development model, it didn't turn into any "productivity boost", any more than the general technology level (including mainly proprietary technology) offered. > Programmers will command armies of software agents to build incre…
I thought he just meant access to thousands of oss packages that are easy to leverage, npm, nugget etc.