Let's Be Serious: Online Display Ads Will Fall Sharply In 2009

#1

Post by nickb » Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 9:55 PM UTC

Let's Be Serious: Online Display Ads Will Fall Sharply In 2009
alleyinsider.com

Re: Let's Be Serious: Online Display Ads Will Fall Sharply In 2009

#2

Post by axod » Mon, Oct 20, 2008, 10:26 PM UTC

Ridiculous. First the article says how startups depending on ad revenue will all fail and go out of business, then it says it predicts ad revenue will fall 10%.

Even if ad revenue falls 10% there is a ton of money out there.

10% != "sharply"

Re: Let's Be Serious: Online Display Ads Will Fall Sharply In 2009

#3

Post by abstractbill » Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 12:53 AM UTC

axod wrote: post #2

Ridiculous. First the article says how startups depending on ad revenue will all fail and go out of business, then it says it predicts ad revenue will fall 10%. Even if ad revenue falls 10% there is a ton of money out there. 10% != "sharply"

I talked to a guy recently who had a plausible-sounding theory that ad spend won't drop hugely, but it will be spent in fewer places - the bigger, "safer" sites.

Re: Let's Be Serious: Online Display Ads Will Fall Sharply In 2009

#4

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 12:56 AM UTC

abstractbill wrote: post #3

axod wrote: post #2

Ridiculous. First the article says how startups depending on ad revenue will all fail and go out of business, then it says it predicts ad revenue will fall 10%. Even if ad revenue falls 10% there is a ton of money out there. 10% != "sharply"

I talked to a guy recently who had a plausible-sounding theory that ad spend won't drop hugely, but it will be spent in fewer places - the bigger, "safer" sites.

[deleted]

Re: Let's Be Serious: Online Display Ads Will Fall Sharply In 2009

#5

Post by tom_rath » Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 2:37 AM UTC

abstractbill wrote: post #3

axod wrote: post #2

Ridiculous. First the article says how startups depending on ad revenue will all fail and go out of business, then it says it predicts ad revenue will fall 10%. Even if ad revenue falls 10% there is a ton of money out there. 10% != "sharply"

I talked to a guy recently who had a plausible-sounding theory that ad spend won't drop hugely, but it will be spent in fewer places - the bigger, "safer" sites.

The "bigger, safer" sites do not include Google's Content Network.

Our ad spending is going to remain about the same, but it's going to be targeted much more narrowly.

Re: Let's Be Serious: Online Display Ads Will Fall Sharply In 2009

#6

Post by adilsaleem » Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 7:21 AM UTC

Quarterly Revenue Growth Comparisons (2000-YTD)

revenues dropped in Q3 2004...

but rather than falling sharply...went upwards...

Re: Let's Be Serious: Online Display Ads Will Fall Sharply In 2009

#7

Post by thorax » Tue, Oct 21, 2008, 12:55 PM UTC

axod wrote: post #2

Ridiculous. First the article says how startups depending on ad revenue will all fail and go out of business, then it says it predicts ad revenue will fall 10%. Even if ad revenue falls 10% there is a ton of money out there. 10% != "sharply"

Actually, I think compared to the growth we've seen, a 10% drop would be pretty sharp. Not a "game over" drop, but it's a significant shift in direction. It's grown by 25-35% the last few years.