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Ask HN: What sort of systemic risk to crypto is Paul Graham referring to?

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Ask HN: What sort of systemic risk to crypto is Paul Graham referring to?

#1
There does not seem to be much exposition for the recent tweets from @paulg. Based on the tweets, however, we can assemble the following facts:

1) He's known his friend since at least 2012.

2) He (@paulg) didn't write that.

3) He is trustworthy.

4) He is convinced the "cryptocurrency economy" will shortly experience a "systemic risk."

How should we interpret these tweets from @paulg?

Re: Ask HN: What sort of systemic risk to crypto is Paul Graham referring to?

#2
Not sure how to interpret these tweets:

> A person I have known for more than ten years, who I consider trustworthy, is convinced the cryptocurrency economy will shortly experience a systemic risk. I don’t know anything concrete, but if I were exposed, I would be concerned.

https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1594446009010212865

> I didn't write that. He did. Since I don't know any details, I didn't feel I should edit it. And because I don't know any details, it's no use asking me what he means. If you've read the preceding tweet, you know as much as I do.

https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1594447689961377795

Re: Ask HN: What sort of systemic risk to crypto is Paul Graham referring to?

#5
post #2

Not sure how to interpret these tweets: > A person I have known for more than ten years, who I consider trustworthy, is convinced the cryptocurrency economy will shortly experience a systemic risk. I don’t know anything concrete, but if I were exposed, I would be concerned. https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1594446009010212865 > I didn't write that. He did. Since I don't know any details, I didn't feel I should edit i…

All we know is that some anonymous person told Paul Graham "the cryptocurrency economy will shortly experience a systemic risk" and Paul decided to echo that statement without any explanation.

Re: Ask HN: What sort of systemic risk to crypto is Paul Graham referring to?

#6
As someone who has worked for years in crypto, the tweet reads as very late to catching up with things.

After the repeated huge insolvencies of the last few months, everyone in crypto knows there's massive systemic risk, and new risk from ill thought out new regulation. Everyone has their own list of which companies they guess will be next.

It's very hard to take the tweet seriously. It's like walking around in the California hills predicting a forest fire, during a super dry summer, while orange glows from nearby hills light up the smoke that is choking the air, and ash rains down.

Re: Ask HN: What sort of systemic risk to crypto is Paul Graham referring to?

#7
With all the recent calls for transparency and public auditing, I'd guess USDT; My guess is as worth as any though. USDT run would be a mother of all systemic risks barring one of the majors (BTC/ETH/ADA) technical stumbling or second coming of Satoshi (dormant wallets resurrection event).

Re: Ask HN: What sort of systemic risk to crypto is Paul Graham referring to?

#8
post #2

Not sure how to interpret these tweets: > A person I have known for more than ten years, who I consider trustworthy, is convinced the cryptocurrency economy will shortly experience a systemic risk. I don’t know anything concrete, but if I were exposed, I would be concerned. https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1594446009010212865 > I didn't write that. He did. Since I don't know any details, I didn't feel I should edit i…

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What sort of systemic risk to crypto is Paul Graham referring to?

#9
post #2

Not sure how to interpret these tweets: > A person I have known for more than ten years, who I consider trustworthy, is convinced the cryptocurrency economy will shortly experience a systemic risk. I don’t know anything concrete, but if I were exposed, I would be concerned. https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1594446009010212865 > I didn't write that. He did. Since I don't know any details, I didn't feel I should edit i…

What's the point of even tweeting that? If someone is exposed and following PG, are they just supposed to panic sell now?

Re: Ask HN: What sort of systemic risk to crypto is Paul Graham referring to?

#10
post #7

With all the recent calls for transparency and public auditing, I'd guess USDT; My guess is as worth as any though. USDT run would be a mother of all systemic risks barring one of the majors (BTC/ETH/ADA) technical stumbling or second coming of Satoshi (dormant wallets resurrection event).

But if it was UDST, what new information could PG's friend even have. "They're not solvent" isn't news. A run can't exactly be predicted by an insider more than anyone else. It's hard to imagine what information about USDT leads to that tweet.
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