China’s Military Is Catching Up to the U.S.
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Re: China’s Military Is Catching Up to the U.S.
#2I was interested to hear Peter Zeehan's book, "The end of the world is just the beginning." In it, he basically says China will fall apart over the next decade as the the disastrous one child policy takes effect and depletes the countries population. They are going to lose hundreds of millions of young workers and the entire country is about to become one large retiree nation with very little productivity.
Re: China’s Military Is Catching Up to the U.S.
#3Re: China’s Military Is Catching Up to the U.S.
#4I was interested to hear Peter Zeehan's book, "The end of the world is just the beginning." In it, he basically says China will fall apart over the next decade as the the disastrous one child policy takes effect and depletes the countries population. They are going to lose hundreds of millions of young workers and the entire country is about to become one large retiree nation with very little productivity.
1. China's military age population: https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/15-49...
2. China's old age dependency ratio, 65-plus per worker 20-64: https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/Ratios/OA...
Re: China’s Military Is Catching Up to the U.S.
#5China's strong points:
-China's military has hypersonic missiles that evade most defenses
-Chinese attack drones can paralyze communications networks
-China's naval ships outnumber America's, including 3 aircraft carriers
-China has 2 million serving members vs. 1.4 million US soldiers
-Cyberwar capabilities can disrupt US infrastructure
Considerations:
-China lacks combat experience
-A top-down command structure could make them less flexible to improvise on the field
-40% of training involves studying the Communist Party rather than training
-Untested modern warfare efforts of joint military branch execution
-General lack of readiness based on red vs. blue team exercises
-Shortage of high-quality talent based on standardized admission tests
Re: China’s Military Is Catching Up to the U.S.
#6I was interested to hear Peter Zeehan's book, "The end of the world is just the beginning." In it, he basically says China will fall apart over the next decade as the the disastrous one child policy takes effect and depletes the countries population. They are going to lose hundreds of millions of young workers and the entire country is about to become one large retiree nation with very little productivity.
I read it too and the way he backs it up makes sense.
Re: China’s Military Is Catching Up to the U.S.
#7In a generation. If present trends continue. Experts predict. Barring unforseen events. Anyway, here's the end of the article.
The true test of PLA personnel will be when they’re called on to fight. Some American military strategists and analysts say China might be a generation away from having the ability and training in its military that could effectively match those of the U.S.
“Our staffs have been doing extended combined operations for decades. Theirs haven’t,” Mr. Blasko said.
Re: China’s Military Is Catching Up to the U.S.
#8I was interested to hear Peter Zeehan's book, "The end of the world is just the beginning." In it, he basically says China will fall apart over the next decade as the the disastrous one child policy takes effect and depletes the countries population. They are going to lose hundreds of millions of young workers and the entire country is about to become one large retiree nation with very little productivity.
Robotic automation will have an enormous multiplier effect on the work units of Communist Party Youth. Would be interesting to know the primary author of that one child policy and the gullible decision tree in the Communist Party that fell for the argument.
Re: China’s Military Is Catching Up to the U.S.
#9China's strong points: -China's military has hypersonic missiles that evade most defenses -Chinese attack drones can paralyze communications networks -China's naval ships outnumber America's, including 3 aircraft carriers -China has 2 million serving members vs. 1.4 million US soldiers -Cyberwar capabilities can disrupt US infrastructure Considerations: -China lacks combat experience -A top-down command structure cou…
Americas navy dwarfs chinas from what I’ve heard. I believe the majority of chinas ships are smaller to medium range and lack any ability to sail any meaningful distance which is a major tactical Achilles
Re: China’s Military Is Catching Up to the U.S.
#10>Mr. Xi’s ambition, according to China’s most recent defense white paper, is to complete a modernization of the military by 2035 and turn it into a “world-class force” by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.
With the speed of advancement in PLA rocketry and pursuing their version of prompt global strike, the timeline for PRC acquiring capabilities to negate US supremacy may be much shorter - PRC doesn't need to catch up with the US overall to successfully counter her.
IMO western analysis/MSM gets fixated/distracted by these white paper milestones for when PLA thinks they'll be a sufficiently modern/joint force across all domains, or when they'll reach parity with US in broad-spectrum capabilities (what world-class entails). 2035 is about basic modernization - develop + acquire some new hardware, get trained on them, integrate into new warfare concepts, improve jointness etc. 2049 is about acquiring major platforms in numbers to rival the US. But these are both relatively slow processes - building 10 carrier groups and crewing them takes a while even at PRC speed.
But standing up enough missile brigades protected in hardened bunkers that can destroy any US capital asset worldwide (including CONUS) that are fixed for at least 30 minutes? That can be done much faster. And by all accounts PLARocketForce has been growing rapidly in the last few years, with accompanying R&D news hinting at goals past PGS accompanied by 100+ tests per year (stupid amount).
ULtimately, PGS is not enough to enable PRC to do what she wants to do (take TW), but IMO it's sufficient to deter/counter US from doing or succeeding in what PRC doesn't want US to do (intervene on TW). Arguably the most important current consideration for PRC.