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Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

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Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#3
A few months ago, I posted that here that governments around the world should not interfere with the chip industry just because of the covid-induced shortages. The reason is that supply and demand will naturally sort things out and that any government handout to chip companies to increase capacity will be wasted because chip demand will swing the other way.

The chip industry is now swinging the other way.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#4

A few months ago, I posted that here that governments around the world should not interfere with the chip industry just because of the covid-induced shortages. The reason is that supply and demand will naturally sort things out and that any government handout to chip companies to increase capacity will be wasted because chip demand will swing the other way. The chip industry is now swinging the other way.

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Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#5

A few months ago, I posted that here that governments around the world should not interfere with the chip industry just because of the covid-induced shortages. The reason is that supply and demand will naturally sort things out and that any government handout to chip companies to increase capacity will be wasted because chip demand will swing the other way. The chip industry is now swinging the other way.

I'm not sure that makes your prediction correct, you need to give a timeframe too. Without a timeframe, it's just waiting until you are right.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#6

A few months ago, I posted that here that governments around the world should not interfere with the chip industry just because of the covid-induced shortages. The reason is that supply and demand will naturally sort things out and that any government handout to chip companies to increase capacity will be wasted because chip demand will swing the other way. The chip industry is now swinging the other way.

The current slump seems purely caused by a demand drop. It will take years to see the capacity increase because of those government investments. By then, we will hopefully be out of this recession.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#7

A few months ago, I posted that here that governments around the world should not interfere with the chip industry just because of the covid-induced shortages. The reason is that supply and demand will naturally sort things out and that any government handout to chip companies to increase capacity will be wasted because chip demand will swing the other way. The chip industry is now swinging the other way.

I think it is fair for a government to promote such a key industry to diversify where it is based. Currently a crazy percentage of chips are made in one geographical location. A huge amount of the modern economy is reliant on having cheap and easy access to these chips. This isn't a supply/demand decision by governments, but a strategic risk decision. Having some domestic/local regional (think EU based) chip manufacturing is going to be like having steel or food production. A strategic decision.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#8

A few months ago, I posted that here that governments around the world should not interfere with the chip industry just because of the covid-induced shortages. The reason is that supply and demand will naturally sort things out and that any government handout to chip companies to increase capacity will be wasted because chip demand will swing the other way. The chip industry is now swinging the other way.

I really don’t understand this. Chips are tangible goods, not services where, for example, a bunch of hospitality capacity went to waste during the pandemic. Any “extra” chips will go to use, and will only serve to reduce costs for firms and consumers purchasing them, expand the range of products it makes sense to put chips in and the speed and quality of chips companies can afford to build on. While market signals are the best way to determine these things in general, many of the reasons mentioned in the article - long spin-up times for production infrastructure, dependence on other countries with fraught geopolitical situations - are strong reasons to build reserve capacity, even setting aside the direct economic benefits.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#9

A few months ago, I posted that here that governments around the world should not interfere with the chip industry just because of the covid-induced shortages. The reason is that supply and demand will naturally sort things out and that any government handout to chip companies to increase capacity will be wasted because chip demand will swing the other way. The chip industry is now swinging the other way.

As far as I understand, the primary reason for these investments is not to address the shortages, but to decouple Western nations from their reliance on Taiwanese silicon. Most of the remaining shortages - which are still happening in many industries, eg. heat pump shortages in Europe are mostly blocked by chip supply - are caused by the production backlog of the older/cheaper/different technologies.

So the goal is political. The economy can take a hit to achieve it.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#10
post #4

A few months ago, I posted that here that governments around the world should not interfere with the chip industry just because of the covid-induced shortages. The reason is that supply and demand will naturally sort things out and that any government handout to chip companies to increase capacity will be wasted because chip demand will swing the other way. The chip industry is now swinging the other way.

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