Algorithms predict sports teams' moves with 80% accuracy [pdf]
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Algorithms predict sports teams' moves with 80% accuracy [pdf]
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Re: Algorithms predict sports teams' moves with 80% accuracy [pdf]
#2Title is misleading. This is about classifying volleyball players and predicting their actions up to 2 seconds in advance. Which is really impressive. Humans do this automatically without even thinking about.
General artificial intelligence is a still long way away, but the slow progress and exploration is fascinating to watch.
Re: Algorithms predict sports teams' moves with 80% accuracy [pdf]
#3What will be the effects on betting once the outcomes from the models have been priced in. I suspect odds will get wildly out of balance.
Re: Algorithms predict sports teams' moves with 80% accuracy [pdf]
#4I bet it can predict that the Canucks will never win the playoffs either
Re: Algorithms predict sports teams' moves with 80% accuracy [pdf]
#5What will be the effects on betting once the outcomes from the models have been priced in. I suspect odds will get wildly out of balance.
I was wondering about that as well. Somebody is going to make a killing before they close the loophole, a modern day casino heist.
Re: Algorithms predict sports teams' moves with 80% accuracy [pdf]
#6Title is misleading. This is about classifying volleyball players and predicting their actions up to 2 seconds in advance. Which is really impressive. Humans do this automatically without even thinking about. General artificial intelligence is a still long way away, but the slow progress and exploration is fascinating to watch.
I don't know if this is progress towards AGI. All life and all intelligence is just taking input and matching it against previous inputs and/or some hard-wiring as a way to make a decision. So in that sense you could say that any improvement in pattern recognition is (slow) progress toward AGI.
I don't know if that is useful though, because I don't know if there is some progression from this to that.
In other words, using such broad criteria means you could say that improvement to any pattern recognition or any algorithm that takes an input and decides something to create an output is progress toward AGI, but it's clearly not.
So I'm not really sure if all this is any more than a souped-up "tree recognition neural network on a 16x16 pixel grid" that was the staple of "AI" neural net homework back in the 1980s, or even the old "expert system".
Re: Algorithms predict sports teams' moves with 80% accuracy [pdf]
#7It’d certainly be interesting to see if 80% accuracy over a 2 second window was enough to exploit tactically. If so, you’ve probably just saved a few hours of a video analyst’s time. Interesting approach though. There’s been a lot of work on this over the years, including on (dare I say) more complex sports like soccer. This was from Sloan 5 years ago for example:
Re: Algorithms predict sports teams' moves with 80% accuracy [pdf]
#8What will be the effects on betting once the outcomes from the models have been priced in. I suspect odds will get wildly out of balance.
I was wondering about that as well. Somebody is going to make a killing before they close the loophole, a modern day casino heist.
The abstract talks about predicting 48 frames ahead. Is realtime sports betting even a thing? And if so is the liquidity and spread good enough to enter/exit say a $10,000 position that quickly?
Re: Algorithms predict sports teams' moves with 80% accuracy [pdf]
#9It’d certainly be interesting to see if 80% accuracy over a 2 second window was enough to exploit tactically. If so, you’ve probably just saved a few hours of a video analyst’s time. Interesting approach though. There’s been a lot of work on this over the years, including on (dare I say) more complex sports like soccer. This was from Sloan 5 years ago for example: http://www.yisongyue.com/publications/ssac2017_ghosti…
I'm pretty sure any skilled player can reliable judge what opposing players are going to in the next few seconds. Probably with closer to 95% accuracy.
Re: Algorithms predict sports teams' moves with 80% accuracy [pdf]
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
I was wondering about that as well. Somebody is going to make a killing before they close the loophole, a modern day casino heist.
The abstract talks about predicting 48 frames ahead. Is realtime sports betting even a thing? And if so is the liquidity and spread good enough to enter/exit say a $10,000 position that quickly?
> Is realtime sports betting even a thing?
Yes. It’s a growth area in sports betting.
> And if so is the liquidity and spread good enough to enter/exit say a $10,000 position that quickly?
In some sports, sure. Probably not in volleyball.
The threat in the field is that some people have a slightly faster access to info than others (3-5 secs for live versus broadcast, iirc).
If the result of an algo can push a betting line (e.g., predicting a tying point in a volleyball match), then automated bet placement software/script can make a prediction and get a bet in before the action is seen by bettors who are watching on broadcast.
Even without prediction software, this is a very real problem with real time sports betting right now. It seems like functional prediction software can make this knowledge gap larger.