Ask HN: When will big tech be taken down a notch?

#1

Post by Gaessaki » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 11:26 AM UTC

For the average person, it’s hard to imagine a world where the GAMA are not so utterly dominant. However, there’s clearly a precedent of “nothing lasts for ever” in tech with former incumbents such as IBM, Intel, Yahoo, AOL, Oracle, to a certain extent Microsoft, and many others losing their grip of their quasi-monopolistic market positions. Do you see a near future where today’s GAMA shuffle to become a different acronym (or doing away with big 4 acronyms altogether)? If so, what are the events that will lead up to it and who will be the first to go?

Note, not arguing that they should be taken down a notch necessarily, but rather more interested in the economic arguments of whether it’s possible or even likely.

Re: Ask HN: When will big tech be taken down a notch?

#2

Post by mikewarot » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 12:06 PM UTC

Nobody has yet implemented the Memex proposed by Bush in 1945.[1] In it, hyperlinked documents were stored in a massive LOCAL library, and could be shared in context at will.

Local storage of data removes the tracking information you supply to enable advertising, and give them profits at your expense.

It would drive the copyright rentier class (Disney et al) nuts, but could also be quite handy to have in the coming wave of DeGlobalization and supply chain restructuring.

The editor of the Atlantic in his introduction said "The perfection of these pacific instruments should be the first objective of our scientists as they emerge from their war work." Yet here we are, 70+ years later with that vision unfulfilled.

[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1945/07/as-we-m...

Re: Ask HN: When will big tech be taken down a notch?

#3

Post by jstx1 » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 12:16 PM UTC

> IBM, Intel, Yahoo, AOL, Oracle, to a certain extent Microsoft(...) Do you see a near future where today’s FAANG shuffle to become a different acronym

By market cap the six largest US tech companies are Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla and Meta (in that order). Netflix is number 71 on the list (of all companies, not just tech); it's smaller than Intel, AMD, IBM, Oracle, Cisco, Salesforce etc.

'FAANG' catching on as an acronym doesn't say all that much about these companies as a group.

Re: Ask HN: When will big tech be taken down a notch?

#4

Post by Gaessaki » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 12:24 PM UTC

jstx1 wrote: post #3

> IBM, Intel, Yahoo, AOL, Oracle, to a certain extent Microsoft(...) Do you see a near future where today’s FAANG shuffle to become a different acronym By market cap the six largest US tech companies are Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla and Meta (in that order). Netflix is number 71 on the list (of all companies, not just tech); it's smaller than Intel, AMD, IBM, Oracle, Cisco, Salesforce etc. 'FAANG' catchi…

I could include another dozen or companies that I would target in this question. FAANG is simply a stand-in. I guess we could go with GAMA instead.

Re: Ask HN: When will big tech be taken down a notch?

#5

Post by GianFabien » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 1:04 PM UTC

I'm not an economist, just some random techie.

I don't think you can lump all of GAMA together. I think that Meta and Twitter which rely almost entirely on advertising revenue are the most vulnerable. Google with some products and Apple with several products should be less vulnerable. Amazon covers several niches: distributor, advertiser, web services, so they are probably facing numerous challenges in the future.

If the headwinds in the near future intensify, then I suspect that advertising spending will reduce and thus any business that sustains itself purely on advertising revenue will have serious problems.

Re: Ask HN: When will big tech be taken down a notch?

#6

Post by afarrell » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 1:15 PM UTC

mikewarot wrote: post #2

Nobody has yet implemented the Memex proposed by Bush in 1945.[1] In it, hyperlinked documents were stored in a massive LOCAL library, and could be shared in context at will. Local storage of data removes the tracking information you supply to enable advertising, and give them profits at your expense. It would drive the copyright rentier class (Disney et al) nuts, but could also be quite handy to have in the coming w…

Who will be willing to pay for it?

Re: Ask HN: When will big tech be taken down a notch?

#7

Post by PaulHoule » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 1:15 PM UTC

It’s already happened to Facebook. Zuckerberg would love to trade his company for TikTok and their version of the ‘metaverse’ is cruelly mocked in all corners.

Amazon is slipping. In the last two years they quit delivering Prime packages in two days in much of the US. Most other retailers have sped up their deliveries in this time frame. Customers are starting to notice. Everything AMZN has pioneered is now widespread in business. For instance AWS was fresh once but Azure is a peer.

Netflix is just another movie studio no.

Re: Ask HN: When will big tech be taken down a notch?

#8

Post by cutierust » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 1:26 PM UTC

jstx1 wrote: post #3

> IBM, Intel, Yahoo, AOL, Oracle, to a certain extent Microsoft(...) Do you see a near future where today’s FAANG shuffle to become a different acronym By market cap the six largest US tech companies are Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla and Meta (in that order). Netflix is number 71 on the list (of all companies, not just tech); it's smaller than Intel, AMD, IBM, Oracle, Cisco, Salesforce etc. 'FAANG' catchi…

I bet Paul Graham created that acronym

Re: Ask HN: When will big tech be taken down a notch?

#9

Post by jstx1 » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 1:28 PM UTC

cutierust wrote: post #8

jstx1 wrote: post #3

> IBM, Intel, Yahoo, AOL, Oracle, to a certain extent Microsoft(...) Do you see a near future where today’s FAANG shuffle to become a different acronym By market cap the six largest US tech companies are Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla and Meta (in that order). Netflix is number 71 on the list (of all companies, not just tech); it's smaller than Intel, AMD, IBM, Oracle, Cisco, Salesforce etc. 'FAANG' catchi…

I bet Paul Graham created that acronym

It was Jim Cramer - FANG (without Apple) were 4 stocks that he liked back in 2013 and it kind of caught on and evolved from there.

Re: Ask HN: When will big tech be taken down a notch?

#10

Post by mikewarot » Tue, Sep 13, 2022, 1:41 PM UTC

afarrell wrote: post #6

mikewarot wrote: post #2

Nobody has yet implemented the Memex proposed by Bush in 1945.[1] In it, hyperlinked documents were stored in a massive LOCAL library, and could be shared in context at will. Local storage of data removes the tracking information you supply to enable advertising, and give them profits at your expense. It would drive the copyright rentier class (Disney et al) nuts, but could also be quite handy to have in the coming w…

Who will be willing to pay for it?

It's just a program, there's no real cost to manufacture and distribute software.

As for how would development be funded, a group effort, open source.