“A Mild Recession”
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“A Mild Recession”
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Re: “A Mild Recession”
#2Oh, this is just the beginning. Ten years of “oh, just buy index funds” strategy will unwind with a huge snap.
Re: “A Mild Recession”
#3I actually feel really prepared for this one. 2007 made me nervous, but not this one. I feel secure in my employment and I finally have a real emergency fund even if I lose my job. I'm not optimistic about long term though. The infinite growth delusion seems like it will break in my lifetime, retirement is scary
Re: “A Mild Recession”
#4nit: "This morning the Bank of Canada announced a 100 basis point interest rate hike. The market was expecting 50 basis points."
The market was expecting 75 basis points. That was the consensus.
When I see this kind of thing it does make me question the rest of the information points on the article that I am not as well informed on.
Re: “A Mild Recession”
#5Oh, this is just the beginning. Ten years of “oh, just buy index funds” strategy will unwind with a huge snap.
Please show on the S&P 500 graph where buying to sell now hasn’t been a great opportunity in the last 100 years minus the last twelve months.
Re: “A Mild Recession”
#6I actually feel really prepared for this one. 2007 made me nervous, but not this one. I feel secure in my employment and I finally have a real emergency fund even if I lose my job. I'm not optimistic about long term though. The infinite growth delusion seems like it will break in my lifetime, retirement is scary
Too young to understand what happened in the 2008 GFC but I doubt the 'feeling prepared' part works like this. First of all, the recessions tend to last longer than most people expect/plan for. Statistically, it will turn out their 'secure' jobs will be less 'secure' than expected. Meanwhile their emergency funds will start shrinking (slowly at first, then all at once) due to loss of purchasing power & eventual job loss.
However, I'm optimistic on the long term because I think only recessions can correct the (massive) mis-allocation of capital that we experienced the past decade due to ultra-low interest rates.
Re: “A Mild Recession”
#7Oh, this is just the beginning. Ten years of “oh, just buy index funds” strategy will unwind with a huge snap.
Please show on the S&P 500 graph where buying to sell now hasn’t been a great opportunity in the last 100 years minus the last twelve months.
You are correct, but that doesn't mean this will hold true forever.
Re: “A Mild Recession”
#8Oh, this is just the beginning. Ten years of “oh, just buy index funds” strategy will unwind with a huge snap.
Please show on the S&P 500 graph where buying to sell now hasn’t been a great opportunity in the last 100 years minus the last twelve months.
Main difference is that the past 10 years everyone and their mom parroted the mantra "buy index funds, it is the best place to put all your savings". That wasn't the case before, today index funds makes up a larger share of investors than ever before in history so we have never seen what an economic crash looks like when everyone invests in index funds. Maybe it wont be bad, but maybe this will be the biggest crash ever, it is unknown territory.
"How could index funds crash, they correlate with the entire market!"
Well, then they crash by crashing the entire market. And once the market starts crashing and people gets worried about their investments and wants to cash out their index funds, it will continue to crash.
Re: “A Mild Recession”
#9Oh, this is just the beginning. Ten years of “oh, just buy index funds” strategy will unwind with a huge snap.
Please show on the S&P 500 graph where buying to sell now hasn’t been a great opportunity in the last 100 years minus the last twelve months.
Surely you believe there is some P/E where a company is a bad investment?
Re: “A Mild Recession”
#10No post body was provided.