Hot or Not?
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Hot or Not?
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Re: Hot or Not?
#2Abstract: Non-expert who uses scare quotes liberally ("scientific consensus", "data science") finds that he's the only one who's figured out that the world is, in fact, cooling.
Re: Hot or Not?
#3Abstract: Non-expert who uses scare quotes liberally ("scientific consensus", "data science") finds that he's the only one who's figured out that the world is, in fact, cooling.
Perhaps: "These plots of this dataset don't show extreme effect either way"
Re: Hot or Not?
#4This is why "climate change" is a better term than "global warming."
Weather is really really complicated. More greenhouse gases in the air results in more of the sun's energy staying in our atmosphere as heat, but how that affects the ground-level temperature in a specific city can be very, very complicated. Some areas might even become significantly cooler as climate change affects the weather. Plus, many of the worst effects of rising greenhouse gas levels (droughts, hurricanes, wildfires, flooding, algal blooms) are not a direct result of rising temperatures.
A climate change indicator with fewer confounding factors than "ASOS temperatures for pseudo-random airports" is ocean acidity level [1] [2] (CO2 gets dissolved in our oceans and changes the pH, affecting marine life). Another one is sea level [3].
[1] https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indica...
[2] https://www.eea.europa.eu/ims/ocean-acidification
[3] https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indica...
Re: Hot or Not?
#5This is just a bunch of plots with no effort to engage with the existing literature and study. Frankly, it is a waste of time trying to draw conclusions about global warming from this.
Re: Hot or Not?
#6All I can say as a 47 year old who lived most of his life in Germany is that the summers when I was a teen, so 30 years ago were considered hot when they were over 25°C. This year in May we had 32°C.
Deny or criticize all you want cherries blossoming on Christmas in Berlin is NOT normal. And neither is the absence of snow in winter and mild temperatures.
Those graphs don't impress me at all, because I remember what it was like and see what it's like now.
I'm in Croatia right now and remember where the sea level was back when I was little and also see where it's at now.
If you lived on this planet for a while and are not ignorant to your surroundings you see the change, you feel it.
Cold places are hot now and warm places are hotter for longer periods of time.
I wrote it before and I'll repeat myself, if you look at what changed in the last 100 years or thereabout, it's mass burning of fossil fuels, the cars, fabrics, planes etc. Yes, I know don't jump to conclusions, scientific method and all. The not ignorant person just being observant and applying some common sense can see it bright as day.
Re: Hot or Not?
#7Why not produce an aggregate across all locations?
I appreciate the value of getting up-close with the data to see quality issues, put things in context, etc. But the lack of an overall analysis leaves the most relevant question unasked, leaving us only with the author's biases (as they themselves admit.)
Re: Hot or Not?
#8All I can say as a 47 year old who lived most of his life in Germany is that the summers when I was a teen, so 30 years ago were considered hot when they were over 25°C. This year in May we had 32°C. Deny or criticize all you want cherries blossoming on Christmas in Berlin is NOT normal. And neither is the absence of snow in winter and mild temperatures. Those graphs don't impress me at all, because I remember what i…
You can notice ~10cm difference in sea level?
https://sealevel.nasa.gov/faq/13/how-long-have-sea-levels-be...
Re: Hot or Not?
#9I find this really cool, kudos to the author for trying to build up an understanding from the actual data.
I find it interesting to see that the median temps in these select cities don't seem to be wandering up that much. I wonder if there is some statistical tool to analyze the slight upward angle on the linear regressions of the medians.
I am surprised that these data do not show a more extreme departure. I believe that we are getting hotter temperatures, etc etc. But perhaps my observations are colored by the media on this - if I were a lizard, would I see climate change?
Re: Hot or Not?
#10I think it's great for someone to download the data and try to do some analysis. However I would have wished he would have gone into the details a bit more. Separating between daytime/nighttime and summer winter temperatures would have been nice for example to dig doen into the data.