Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth
1–10 of 75 posts
Re: Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth
#2Napkin math: earth's surface area is ~510 million square kilometers. The lander is described as fitting in a 1-meter protective shell. So we have a roughly 1 in 510 billion chance of standing in the lucky spot.
(This of course would only be accurate if all square meters of the earth's surface were equally likely to be hit. Not the case since the lander appears to be orbiting the equator.)
Re: Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth
#3Napkin math: earth's surface area is ~510 million square kilometers. The lander is described as fitting in a 1-meter protective shell. So we have a roughly 1 in 510 billion chance of standing in the lucky spot. (This of course would only be accurate if all square meters of the earth's surface were equally likely to be hit. Not the case since the lander appears to be orbiting the equator.)
[deleted]
Re: Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth
#4Napkin math: earth's surface area is ~510 million square kilometers. The lander is described as fitting in a 1-meter protective shell. So we have a roughly 1 in 510 billion chance of standing in the lucky spot. (This of course would only be accurate if all square meters of the earth's surface were equally likely to be hit. Not the case since the lander appears to be orbiting the equator.)
[deleted]
Re: Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth
#5Napkin math: earth's surface area is ~510 million square kilometers. The lander is described as fitting in a 1-meter protective shell. So we have a roughly 1 in 510 billion chance of standing in the lucky spot. (This of course would only be accurate if all square meters of the earth's surface were equally likely to be hit. Not the case since the lander appears to be orbiting the equator.)
That's an English billion (10^12), given that there are a million square metres to the square km?
Mind you, I wouldn't want to be standing within 18m of where it lands, so either definition of "billion" does make sense.
Re: Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth
#6tl;dr on why its relevant:
„The reentry of the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft will not be your standard reentry. The Descent Craft was designed to survive entry through the dense atmosphere of Venus. It will therefore likely survive reentry into the Earth’s atmosphere intact and make a crash landing (it is extremely unlikely that the parachute system will still work after more than 50 years in space). This will therefore be a high-interest reentry.“
Re: Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth
#7Napkin math: earth's surface area is ~510 million square kilometers. The lander is described as fitting in a 1-meter protective shell. So we have a roughly 1 in 510 billion chance of standing in the lucky spot. (This of course would only be accurate if all square meters of the earth's surface were equally likely to be hit. Not the case since the lander appears to be orbiting the equator.)
The distribution of people is not uniform over the potential impact area, which is, as you mention yourself, not the whole surface of the earth. The error bars on this are too huge even by napkin standards, for this to work as an estimate.
Re: Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth
#8tl;dr on why its relevant: „The reentry of the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft will not be your standard reentry. The Descent Craft was designed to survive entry through the dense atmosphere of Venus. It will therefore likely survive reentry into the Earth’s atmosphere intact and make a crash landing (it is extremely unlikely that the parachute system will still work after more than 50 years in space). This will therefore b…
[deleted]
Re: Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth
#9If a chunk of Soviet space junk falls on someone's house, does the Russian Federation just shrug and say, "That was the USSR, bruh, sorry." They must have assumed responsibility for the Soviet space program, right? It's sort of like firing a bullet into the air... Doesn't matter how long it takes to come down, it's still your fault if it kills someone.
Re: Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth
#10tl;dr on why its relevant: „The reentry of the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft will not be your standard reentry. The Descent Craft was designed to survive entry through the dense atmosphere of Venus. It will therefore likely survive reentry into the Earth’s atmosphere intact and make a crash landing (it is extremely unlikely that the parachute system will still work after more than 50 years in space). This will therefore b…
Would we be able to shoot it down before it hits anything?