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Show HN: I built a dashboard of official data ahead of French elections

lafrance.enchiffres.fr

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Re: Show HN: I built a dashboard of official data ahead of French elections

#3
Out of curiosity: What is/was your motivation behind this and how does it correlate to elections?

My baseline assumption looking at this is that in all of these numbers, there are massive systematic, global - and hence exogenous to France or any single state - forces at play (like globalization, the Financial crisis and the following decade of inflationary money printing) which shape most of these indicators.

Showing election dates of French presidents looks like a classic and rather obvious case of correlation does not imply causation.

Might well be that I don't have the full picture though and I was not following French campaigns. Is there a public debate/ general public opinion in France that presidents had significant influence on these indicators shown?

Re: Show HN: I built a dashboard of official data ahead of French elections

#5

Out of curiosity: What is/was your motivation behind this and how does it correlate to elections? My baseline assumption looking at this is that in all of these numbers, there are massive systematic, global - and hence exogenous to France or any single state - forces at play (like globalization, the Financial crisis and the following decade of inflationary money printing) which shape most of these indicators. Showing…

It's hard to say there's a direct causation. I left France myself because I felt the problems shown in these indicators were so deeply rooted in the French psyche that there was simply nothing to do. For instance, dropping the unemployment rate to a level akin to Germany would require us to see life like Germans do: practically, minding social cost of social welfare, admitting mistakes and correcting course rather than doubling down etc.

I voted Macron because he was the only one suggesting maybe the French people are the root cause rather than the political color of the president, but I understand this guy did it that way: everyone will make the president own these indicators and judge him accordingly, and of course be permanently disappointed and vote more and more radical. If you look at the landscape this election it's 30% "fuck it all it's the foreigners" LePen, 30% "fuck it all it's the 1%" Melenchon and 30% "fucking hell dudes, we dont know what it could be but the 2 others are scary so let's just stick to the evil we know" Macron.

I've never heard someone clearly stating without being shunned immediately "guys, the problem, I think I know, it's simply... all of us" :D And yes even external factors will be blamed on the president, especially if he proposes to adapt to it: why would we proud light of the world adapt to american or chinese competition, we can simply do nothing at all while posturing on the streets we re fighting for our "social acquisitions" as we call our rigid policies.

Re: Show HN: I built a dashboard of official data ahead of French elections

#6
post #5

Out of curiosity: What is/was your motivation behind this and how does it correlate to elections? My baseline assumption looking at this is that in all of these numbers, there are massive systematic, global - and hence exogenous to France or any single state - forces at play (like globalization, the Financial crisis and the following decade of inflationary money printing) which shape most of these indicators. Showing…

It's hard to say there's a direct causation. I left France myself because I felt the problems shown in these indicators were so deeply rooted in the French psyche that there was simply nothing to do. For instance, dropping the unemployment rate to a level akin to Germany would require us to see life like Germans do: practically, minding social cost of social welfare, admitting mistakes and correcting course rather th…

I suspect you moved to the US? I did that as well, out of love for a human being; not a disdain of the political surrounding.

Boy oh boy, French have it good. They have no idea. Maybe they do have it good because they keep asking for more.

I don’t even find the country specifically dis functional ( compared to the US )

But that just my own personal data point. Also, I live in the buttcrack of the US, maybe it’s not fair. ( and I love that said buttcrack :) ! )

Re: Show HN: I built a dashboard of official data ahead of French elections

#8
post #5

Out of curiosity: What is/was your motivation behind this and how does it correlate to elections? My baseline assumption looking at this is that in all of these numbers, there are massive systematic, global - and hence exogenous to France or any single state - forces at play (like globalization, the Financial crisis and the following decade of inflationary money printing) which shape most of these indicators. Showing…

It's hard to say there's a direct causation. I left France myself because I felt the problems shown in these indicators were so deeply rooted in the French psyche that there was simply nothing to do. For instance, dropping the unemployment rate to a level akin to Germany would require us to see life like Germans do: practically, minding social cost of social welfare, admitting mistakes and correcting course rather th…

What do you think is the problem? I know next to nothing about France and by simply looking at the graphs, it seems to be getting better, no? Unemployment is decreasing, purchasing power is increasing, rent increase is not that crazy compared to how it is in the world. Is it about how things have always been or is it about deltas in recent times? Seems to me the former is the case here.

Re: Show HN: I built a dashboard of official data ahead of French elections

#9

Out of curiosity: What is/was your motivation behind this and how does it correlate to elections? My baseline assumption looking at this is that in all of these numbers, there are massive systematic, global - and hence exogenous to France or any single state - forces at play (like globalization, the Financial crisis and the following decade of inflationary money printing) which shape most of these indicators. Showing…

> Out of curiosity: What is/was your motivation behind this and how does it correlate to elections?

What motivated me is the simple fact that during this presidential campaign we would have one candidate saying that his presidential balance has been "very good", and on the other side all the opponents have been constantly stating that it has been a "disaster". During these last months, I have been unable to find a "neutral" and global way of see the impact Macron has had during the last 5 years. I therefore wanted to build this website in order to have a dashboard showing national statistics on key topics.

> Showing election dates of French presidents looks like a classic and rather obvious case of correlation does not imply causation.

I wanted to show the presidential election dates precisely to showcase this: It really almost doesn't matter which president France has. I believe that the macroeconomic variations follow World/European variations. And unfortunately, I feel that too many people believe that the presidents are "destroying" or "saving" the country.

> Might well be that I don't have the full picture though and I was not following French campaigns. Is there a public debate/ general public opinion in France that presidents had significant influence on these indicators shown?

I guess that there has probably been debates and studies about this, but from my experience I can say that presidents cannot influence too much the trends that the country is following.

Re: Show HN: I built a dashboard of official data ahead of French elections

#10
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's hard to say there's a direct causation. I left France myself because I felt the problems shown in these indicators were so deeply rooted in the French psyche that there was simply nothing to do. For instance, dropping the unemployment rate to a level akin to Germany would require us to see life like Germans do: practically, minding social cost of social welfare, admitting mistakes and correcting course rather th…

What do you think is the problem? I know next to nothing about France and by simply looking at the graphs, it seems to be getting better, no? Unemployment is decreasing, purchasing power is increasing, rent increase is not that crazy compared to how it is in the world. Is it about how things have always been or is it about deltas in recent times? Seems to me the former is the case here.

I would say it's getting better, maybe not to the point I d come back, probably because like I smelled, Macron helped unwind some of our social rigidity, but from the look of it (my families and friends back on the motherland), he made so many people seethe with rage with his "we must adapt or die" attitude that he ravaged the moderate parties to the profit of the populists on both side who want to reassure that we can unwind everything because none of our problems are of our own making...

But yes, def positive, def happy from abroad, and def coming back when Macron-like consensus is at 60% rather than 30, anything less means it's going to come back.

As for the root cause I think it's because we misunderstand what we are: a small country dependent on Germany's benevolence to continue with our post war marshall plan attitude. We must produce, we must invent, we must adapt, we must sacrifice. But instead we whine, we fight on the street and we vote for populist comfort that we're still the great napoleonic empire, light of the Universe, that s the issue. And yes, I know im whining here too :D Also note at least 70% of french people disagree with me, so, grain of salt...

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