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Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin

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Re: Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin

#3
post #2

> Putin does not roll a dice every morning and launches a nuclear missile if a six shows up. You wish! The problem here is that Putin is not rational.

This makes me chuckle. The Bad Orange Man played the "insane king" role really, really well. Everyone was on their best behaviour until he left office. Peace talks in the Middle East progressed. Russia stayed in their borders. North Korea huffed and puffed and ultimately did nothing. Trade with China became more favorable to the US. It's almost like his foreign policy was effective.

To your point: Putin isn't nuts. He's just a really good politician. He's pragmatic and knows the value of being seen as "crazy" and "he might actually launch a nuke".

Re: Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin

#4
post #2

> Putin does not roll a dice every morning and launches a nuclear missile if a six shows up. You wish! The problem here is that Putin is not rational.

He might not be rational, but surely nobody can argue that he is insane to that level – at least, I haven’t seen anything that suggests that.

Re: Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin

#5
post #2

> Putin does not roll a dice every morning and launches a nuclear missile if a six shows up. You wish! The problem here is that Putin is not rational.

So?

Whoever is insaner wins?

Nah, remind Putin that we all saw how much the russian army sucks and in case of nuclear war the US still wins after they get out of their bunkers.

Re: Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin

#6
post #3
post #2

> Putin does not roll a dice every morning and launches a nuclear missile if a six shows up. You wish! The problem here is that Putin is not rational.

This makes me chuckle. The Bad Orange Man played the "insane king" role really, really well. Everyone was on their best behaviour until he left office. Peace talks in the Middle East progressed. Russia stayed in their borders. North Korea huffed and puffed and ultimately did nothing. Trade with China became more favorable to the US. It's almost like his foreign policy was effective. To your point: Putin isn't nuts. H…

Syria

Re: Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin

#7
post #3
post #2

> Putin does not roll a dice every morning and launches a nuclear missile if a six shows up. You wish! The problem here is that Putin is not rational.

This makes me chuckle. The Bad Orange Man played the "insane king" role really, really well. Everyone was on their best behaviour until he left office. Peace talks in the Middle East progressed. Russia stayed in their borders. North Korea huffed and puffed and ultimately did nothing. Trade with China became more favorable to the US. It's almost like his foreign policy was effective. To your point: Putin isn't nuts. H…

Trump also pushed the EU and the rest of Asia towards China

https://www.americanprogress.org/article/trump-withdraws-ame...

Re: Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin

#8
post #2

> Putin does not roll a dice every morning and launches a nuclear missile if a six shows up. You wish! The problem here is that Putin is not rational.

People look like they make irrational decisions when viewed from the outside with little inside knowledge, there is definitely more to this than we are aware of.

Re: Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin

#9
post #2

> Putin does not roll a dice every morning and launches a nuclear missile if a six shows up. You wish! The problem here is that Putin is not rational.

He might not be rational, but surely nobody can argue that he is insane to that level – at least, I haven’t seen anything that suggests that.

He's just a little bitch screaming to everyone's face "I'm gonna use nukes!" hoping we give him what he wants.

What does he have to lose by alluding to using nukes right now?

Nukes are the only thing stopping the West from rolling into Moscow, the magic wears off if the clock strikes 12. Nukes only work for the 15 minutes before they are used, Putin and Lavrov keep crying "Nuklear wolf!".

Re: Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin

#10
post #3
post #2

> Putin does not roll a dice every morning and launches a nuclear missile if a six shows up. You wish! The problem here is that Putin is not rational.

This makes me chuckle. The Bad Orange Man played the "insane king" role really, really well. Everyone was on their best behaviour until he left office. Peace talks in the Middle East progressed. Russia stayed in their borders. North Korea huffed and puffed and ultimately did nothing. Trade with China became more favorable to the US. It's almost like his foreign policy was effective. To your point: Putin isn't nuts. H…

The same was said about Nixon during the Vietnam war (which he inherited, but would never have started) but it is a really risky stratergy once you start ramping up the mania levels and passing them on to your nuclear forces, which Nixon (a good president, all in all) nor the Big Orange ever did.
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