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United States will place travel restrictions on S. Africa and 7 other countries

nytimes.com

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Re: United States will place travel restrictions on S. Africa and 7 other countries

#4

Ridiculous response - travel bans are not effective (the strain is definitely already here) and punish countries for transparency.

The US has been pretty transparent on that, that the goal is not to prevent it from coming here (that's impossible), but to slow its spread here to give scientists more time to evaluate its impact.

Re: United States will place travel restrictions on S. Africa and 7 other countries

#5

Ridiculous response - travel bans are not effective (the strain is definitely already here) and punish countries for transparency.

The US has been pretty transparent on that, that the goal is not to prevent it from coming here (that's impossible), but to slow its spread here to give scientists more time to evaluate its impact.

And what evidence suggests that travel bans actually do anything to "slow the spread"?

Re: United States will place travel restrictions on S. Africa and 7 other countries

#6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has been pretty transparent on that, that the goal is not to prevent it from coming here (that's impossible), but to slow its spread here to give scientists more time to evaluate its impact.

And what evidence suggests that travel bans actually do anything to "slow the spread"?

Math? Any particular transmission event is chance of someone being infected X probability of transmission. Reduce the first term and the total number of infected individuals at a given time T is reduced (until any exponential growth swamps the terms).

Point of saying "it's impossible to prevent" is that it's not possible to reduce the first term to 0.

Re: United States will place travel restrictions on S. Africa and 7 other countries

#7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And what evidence suggests that travel bans actually do anything to "slow the spread"?

Math? Any particular transmission event is chance of someone being infected X probability of transmission. Reduce the first term and the total number of infected individuals at a given time T is reduced (until any exponential growth swamps the terms). Point of saying "it's impossible to prevent" is that it's not possible to reduce the first term to 0.

Okay, even if it works (which is unlikely), what about the costs to society? Do the benefits outweigh those costs?

There are other things in life to worry about than slowing the spread of exactly one illness... is it worth continuing to put those on the backburner?

When does this end?

Re: United States will place travel restrictions on S. Africa and 7 other countries

#9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Math? Any particular transmission event is chance of someone being infected X probability of transmission. Reduce the first term and the total number of infected individuals at a given time T is reduced (until any exponential growth swamps the terms). Point of saying "it's impossible to prevent" is that it's not possible to reduce the first term to 0.

Okay, even if it works (which is unlikely), what about the costs to society? Do the benefits outweigh those costs? There are other things in life to worry about than slowing the spread of exactly one illness... is it worth continuing to put those on the backburner? When does this end?

It might end when universal vaccination and other measures suppress COVID to occasional outbreaks that can be quickly put down.

Otherwise it may never end. With widespread circulation, and selection pressure to evade immunity from vaccines and prior infection, escape variants may become the norm. Each new escape variant will require lockdowns, travel restrictions, and new vaccination.

Pretending it is not happening is not an option either, when basic medical services are not available due to overwhelmed healthcare systems.

Re: United States will place travel restrictions on S. Africa and 7 other countries

#10

Ridiculous response - travel bans are not effective (the strain is definitely already here) and punish countries for transparency.

The US has been pretty transparent on that, that the goal is not to prevent it from coming here (that's impossible), but to slow its spread here to give scientists more time to evaluate its impact.

and if that impact is bad (i.e. vaccine escape, severe illness, and outcompetes Delta) then lockdowns are our only option.
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