Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air (Revised, Community Edition)
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Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air (Revised, Community Edition)
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Re: Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air (Revised, Community Edition)
#2Alas, this is probably pointless.
Some technologies (PV, batteries, wind) have improved by an order of magnitude - and swamp out all other considerations.
EDIT: to be clear, i loved the original book, and have re-read it several times over the years.
Re: Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air (Revised, Community Edition)
#3Alas, this is probably pointless. Some technologies (PV, batteries, wind) have improved by an order of magnitude - and swamp out all other considerations. EDIT: to be clear, i loved the original book, and have re-read it several times over the years.
David MacKay’s work was for me very important. It showed how one should do a systems analysis for a country to understand how one can achieve the change required. I was astonished when I talked to several of the leading people responsible for energy policy in several political parties in my country, to find they really had no clue about what they where doing on a systems level.
I think that updating this book is not pointless, but more importantly doing the same for more countries is really important.
Re: Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air (Revised, Community Edition)
#4Alas, this is probably pointless. Some technologies (PV, batteries, wind) have improved by an order of magnitude - and swamp out all other considerations. EDIT: to be clear, i loved the original book, and have re-read it several times over the years.
FTBook:
> Wind turbines are getting bigger all the time. Do bigger wind turbines change this chapter’s answer?
> Chapter B explains. Bigger wind turbines deliver financial economies of scale, but they don’t greatly increase the total power per unit land area, because bigger windmills have to be spaced further apart. A wind farm that’s twice as tall will deliver roughly 30% more power.
So, did wind turbine production actually increased by an order of magnitudes since the book ?
Re: Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air (Revised, Community Edition)
#5Alas, this is probably pointless. Some technologies (PV, batteries, wind) have improved by an order of magnitude - and swamp out all other considerations. EDIT: to be clear, i loved the original book, and have re-read it several times over the years.
David MacKay’s work was for me very important. It showed how one should do a systems analysis for a country to understand how one can achieve the change required. I was astonished when I talked to several of the leading people responsible for energy policy in several political parties in my country, to find they really had no clue about what they where doing on a systems level. I think that updating this book is not…
It would be fantastic to turn the chapters into Templates where one has to plug in the relevant parameters for a country and see the calculations for that country.
Re: Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air (Revised, Community Edition)
#6Have a look at
http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk/
(I was David's Editor for "Sustainable Energy - without the hot air". There's been quite a bit of interest in updating the book, but there are obvious difficulties. If have suggestions, let me know. Niall Mansfield sewtha-2.0@uit.co.uk )
Re: Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air (Revised, Community Edition)
#7Alas, this is probably pointless. Some technologies (PV, batteries, wind) have improved by an order of magnitude - and swamp out all other considerations. EDIT: to be clear, i loved the original book, and have re-read it several times over the years.
FTBook: > Wind turbines are getting bigger all the time. Do bigger wind turbines change this chapter’s answer? > Chapter B explains. Bigger wind turbines deliver financial economies of scale, but they don’t greatly increase the total power per unit land area, because bigger windmills have to be spaced further apart. A wind farm that’s twice as tall will deliver roughly 30% more power. So, did wind turbine production…
Amazingly, yes!
Turbines have gone from 1-2MW to 10-16MW
Capacity factors have gone from 20% to 50%-60%
Annual additions gave gone from sub-GW to 70GW last year
And with turbine spacing of 1km you can actually do stuff with the land in between.
On the other hand, transmission projects still take 10-20 years, and new transmission projects are often over booked by 300%-400% before they are even started.
Re: Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air (Revised, Community Edition)
#8Earlier quoted context omitted.
David MacKay’s work was for me very important. It showed how one should do a systems analysis for a country to understand how one can achieve the change required. I was astonished when I talked to several of the leading people responsible for energy policy in several political parties in my country, to find they really had no clue about what they where doing on a systems level. I think that updating this book is not…
It would be fantastic to turn the chapters into Templates where one has to plug in the relevant parameters for a country and see the calculations for that country.
And multiple PhD students have done so!
For example, the Stanford/Jacobson study on powering the world with wind/solar/water.
Some results were famously silly, such as filing Finland with solar panels, or adding the cost of nuclear war to nuclear reactors. Jacobson sued other academics then backed down.
The point is, 5-10 years on, these models turned out to be over pessimistic! Australia doesn't need fancy modelling - simple roof top solar there is on target to meet full day time demand in 2-3 years.
Conversely we still dont really know how to meet the last 5% of outlier energy demand scenarios.
Re: Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air (Revised, Community Edition)
#9Sir David Mackay [0] was a great mind who contributed major discoveries in Machine Learning, Information Theory, Coding Theory and Physics. His book "Information Theory, Inference, and Learning Algorithms" is a great resource for anyone learning ML and who wants to understand how ML, Information Theory and Statistics all fit together. The book is available for free download as a pdf [1] as well as for purchase.
His untimely death from cancer in 2016 at the age of 48 is a big loss to Science. His book on Climate Change "Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air" (also available as pdf) [2] is a testament to breadth and versatility of his scientific interests.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_J._C._MacKay
[1] http://www.inference.org.uk/mackay/itila/book.html
[2] http://www.withouthotair.com/
EDIT: typos
Re: Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air (Revised, Community Edition)
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
FTBook: > Wind turbines are getting bigger all the time. Do bigger wind turbines change this chapter’s answer? > Chapter B explains. Bigger wind turbines deliver financial economies of scale, but they don’t greatly increase the total power per unit land area, because bigger windmills have to be spaced further apart. A wind farm that’s twice as tall will deliver roughly 30% more power. So, did wind turbine production…
Amazingly, yes! Turbines have gone from 1-2MW to 10-16MW Capacity factors have gone from 20% to 50%-60% Annual additions gave gone from sub-GW to 70GW last year And with turbine spacing of 1km you can actually do stuff with the land in between. On the other hand, transmission projects still take 10-20 years, and new transmission projects are often over booked by 300%-400% before they are even started.
And did the general conclusion change that wind wouldn't be able to provide more than even half the energy we need for transport?