France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say
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Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say
#2On one hand I understand them, sudden cancelation of a contract is very unpleasant and demeaning.
On the other hand, this is basically a diplomatic version of a tantrum; and powerful countries rarely respond to a tantrum by doing anything substantial.
If France could get the rest of the EU behind it, then maybe. But rest of the EU looks at the problem with disinterest, given that they stood to gain nothing from the original contract.
Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say
#3On one hand I understand them, sudden cancelation of a contract is very unpleasant and demeaning. On the other hand, this is basically a diplomatic version of a tantrum; and powerful countries rarely respond to a tantrum by doing anything substantial. If France could get the rest of the EU behind it, then maybe. But rest of the EU looks at the problem with disinterest, given that they stood to gain nothing from the o…
It's not just a contract though. France actually has a maritime border with Australia and its own interests in the Pacific -> the entire French Pacific strategy was wiped out by 3 "allies" behind its back.
Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say
#4On one hand I understand them, sudden cancelation of a contract is very unpleasant and demeaning. On the other hand, this is basically a diplomatic version of a tantrum; and powerful countries rarely respond to a tantrum by doing anything substantial. If France could get the rest of the EU behind it, then maybe. But rest of the EU looks at the problem with disinterest, given that they stood to gain nothing from the o…
They could just leave NATO, see what happens. I hope they do. The alliance clearly doesn't care about anybody but the US.
Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say
#5On one hand I understand them, sudden cancelation of a contract is very unpleasant and demeaning. On the other hand, this is basically a diplomatic version of a tantrum; and powerful countries rarely respond to a tantrum by doing anything substantial. If France could get the rest of the EU behind it, then maybe. But rest of the EU looks at the problem with disinterest, given that they stood to gain nothing from the o…
It's not just a contract though. France actually has a maritime border with Australia and its own interests in the Pacific -> the entire French Pacific strategy was wiped out by 3 "allies" behind its back.
There are basically three things that France can now do:
a) abandon New Caledonia entirely. This may happen anyway, as an independence referendum is scheduled for December and the balance is uncertain;
b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical;
c) embrace China out of spite or as a result of different geopolitical calculus. That would probably have significant realignment echos in Europe, because France has a big voice in the EU. I am a little afraid of this scenario, though I consider it unlikely to happen.
Edit: I remembered that Tahiti is at stake too. Not certain about local independence movement status.
Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say
#6On one hand I understand them, sudden cancelation of a contract is very unpleasant and demeaning. On the other hand, this is basically a diplomatic version of a tantrum; and powerful countries rarely respond to a tantrum by doing anything substantial. If France could get the rest of the EU behind it, then maybe. But rest of the EU looks at the problem with disinterest, given that they stood to gain nothing from the o…
They could just leave NATO, see what happens. I hope they do. The alliance clearly doesn't care about anybody but the US.
Former Soviet satellites still trust it as a deterrent against Russia.
Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say
#7Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not just a contract though. France actually has a maritime border with Australia and its own interests in the Pacific -> the entire French Pacific strategy was wiped out by 3 "allies" behind its back.
There are basically three things that France can now do: a) abandon New Caledonia entirely. This may happen anyway, as an independence referendum is scheduled for December and the balance is uncertain; b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical; c) embrace China out of spite or as a result of different geopolitical calculus. That would probably have significant realignment echos in Europe, because Fr…
I would bet a paycheck on option c)
The EU and (especially France and Germany) is not THAT critical of China as the US (and other countries...), and France has a big sense of national pride and no problems acting on it.
Is this in any way "good"? I don't know, but realisticaly i CAN see the EU siding more with China than the US in the long run.
Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say
#8On one hand I understand them, sudden cancelation of a contract is very unpleasant and demeaning. On the other hand, this is basically a diplomatic version of a tantrum; and powerful countries rarely respond to a tantrum by doing anything substantial. If France could get the rest of the EU behind it, then maybe. But rest of the EU looks at the problem with disinterest, given that they stood to gain nothing from the o…
They could just leave NATO, see what happens. I hope they do. The alliance clearly doesn't care about anybody but the US.
Since France is a nuclear power i think nothing will happen...
Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
They could just leave NATO, see what happens. I hope they do. The alliance clearly doesn't care about anybody but the US.
Former Soviet satellites still trust it as a deterrent against Russia.
But did NATO (ever in its history) function as a defence alliance, not as an agressive alliance, though?
Re: France cancels defence meeting with UK over submarine row, sources say
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not just a contract though. France actually has a maritime border with Australia and its own interests in the Pacific -> the entire French Pacific strategy was wiped out by 3 "allies" behind its back.
There are basically three things that France can now do: a) abandon New Caledonia entirely. This may happen anyway, as an independence referendum is scheduled for December and the balance is uncertain; b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical; c) embrace China out of spite or as a result of different geopolitical calculus. That would probably have significant realignment echos in Europe, because Fr…
> b) join AUKUS as a junior partner, very painful but logical;
Why is this logical? These partners have already shown that they are going to betray France's trust and lie to them. It would be better to be on your own than have unreliable partners, or worse ones that work against you.