Ask HN: What will happen to Google when somebody disrupts AdWords?

#1

Post by gfaremil » Mon, Aug 01, 2011, 7:04 PM UTC

I invested some portion of my saving into GOOG. But I'm concern that 90% of revenue are ads.

Is it possible at all to disrupt advertising system Google is dependent on?

Just want to ask smart people of HN what they think...

Re: Ask HN: What will happen to Google when somebody disrupts AdWords?

#2

Post by mmurph211 » Mon, Aug 01, 2011, 7:14 PM UTC

Google will buy them out.

Re: Ask HN: What will happen to Google when somebody disrupts AdWords?

#3

Post by ristretto » Mon, Aug 01, 2011, 7:22 PM UTC

Brain scanning devices that will be used to navigate web browsers. ETA 5 years.

Re: Ask HN: What will happen to Google when somebody disrupts AdWords?

#4

Post by A-K » Mon, Aug 01, 2011, 7:23 PM UTC

mmurph211 wrote: post #2

Google will buy them out.

I was about to write some vanilla response, and then I saw this comment. Kudos for making me laugh and for most likely being correct.

Re: Ask HN: What will happen to Google when somebody disrupts AdWords?

#5

Post by samlevine » Mon, Aug 01, 2011, 7:25 PM UTC

mmurph211 wrote: post #2

Google will buy them out.

Just like how Microsoft bought out Google and IBM bought out Microsoft.

Re: Ask HN: What will happen to Google when somebody disrupts AdWords?

#6

Post by benologist » Mon, Aug 01, 2011, 7:25 PM UTC

Of course it's possible - the giants of today aren't always the giants of tomorrow.

But like the other giant corps their demise will be a very slow process with plenty of time and capital to find their next big thing.

Re: Ask HN: What will happen to Google when somebody disrupts AdWords?

#7

Post by niekmaas » Mon, Aug 01, 2011, 7:29 PM UTC

mmurph211 wrote: post #2

Google will buy them out.

Of course this will likely happen when a decent alternative presents itself. This is not guarenteed to happen though. The same could have been said about 'search' when Google wasn't around. 'Yahoo will buy them'. They had the chance but did not see the potential Google had as a searchengine. Whith this in mind it could potentially happen that a new company comes up with a better idea and grows too big too fast for GOOG to buy them. But that's the whole idea behind investing in the stock market: past revenues are no guarantee for the future...

Re: Ask HN: What will happen to Google when somebody disrupts AdWords?

#8

Post by hemancuso » Mon, Aug 01, 2011, 7:45 PM UTC

You should be asking yourself not about disruption, but what would happen if GOOG can't figure out how to keep AdWords revenue increasing. Like other commenters note: nobody has ended up disrupting Windows on the desktop, but Microsoft never figured out a new stream of growth to fuel growth in their share price.

If your primary concern is share price growth, look at a smaller cap stock - or try to convince yourself that Android or one of their other projects will ever move the revenue needle.

Re: Ask HN: What will happen to Google when somebody disrupts AdWords?

#9

Post by fanboy123 » Mon, Aug 01, 2011, 7:46 PM UTC

Diversification is usually a huge waste of money. It is hard for one company/culture to make money doing lots of things. Be glad they know their niche is ads and that they are doing everything they can to protect their castle (as a shareholder).

Relentlessness will enable them to hold on to their position for longer than other companies would. However, all companies will eventually fall to competitors as t approaches inf.

Re: Ask HN: What will happen to Google when somebody disrupts AdWords?

#10

Post by ori_b » Mon, Aug 01, 2011, 7:52 PM UTC

What happens when Adwords gets disrupted? Well, first, it will take a long time for the competitor to establish itself. Businesses don't change overnight. Second, even if the competitor manages to steal ALL of Google's income overnight, Google has billions in the bank.

There will be years for them to find a way to recover, or, in the absolute worst case, years for you to reinvest.