How do you think the world would evolve in the mid-term: economy, globalization and debt; state of the pandemic with vaccines and variants, mass surveillance and social tensions, etc.
Ask HN: What do you think the world would be in 6 months – 1 year
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Re: Ask HN: What do you think the world would be in 6 months – 1 year
#2In six months to a year, I would expect the world to be pretty much the same as it is now. This sentiment derives, as a sort of parallel, from the oft-quoted:
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
- From The Sun Also Rises by Ernest Hemingway.
So, I am not encouraged by trends - populism, protectionism, increasing divide between haves and have-nots, climate problems, resource competition (such as for water), and suchlike - but I would not expect a tipping point for a while.
I am not in a position to predict anything, I lack the expertise/data, and my record for, say, trying to predict markets (this property boom can't last, this stock-price boom can't last, etc ad nauseam) is abysmal.
That being said, I can't imagine that 50 to 100 years out that push will not have come to shove and societal collapse will, at the very least, have pretty much ended aspirational notions of or for a global society progressing towards better and better outcomes for all.
The good news: I've always been wrong before :-)
Re: Ask HN: What do you think the world would be in 6 months – 1 year
#3In six months to a year, I would expect the world to be pretty much the same as it is now. This sentiment derives, as a sort of parallel, from the oft-quoted: “How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.” - From The Sun Also Rises by Ernest Hemingway. So, I am not encouraged by trends - populism, protectionism, increasing divide between haves and have-nots, climate probl…
Thanks for your comment.
I don't expect a "prediction", as as you said, we lack of data and knowledge, and most of the time, we are completely wrong. Nevertheless, some may become true.
I just want to see the panel of ideas people can have, from their own eyes, own background and current situation.
Re: Ask HN: What do you think the world would be in 6 months – 1 year
#4If you want to explore the dire side: check out the collapse subreddit.
Re: Ask HN: What do you think the world would be in 6 months – 1 year
#5In six months to a year, I would expect the world to be pretty much the same as it is now. This sentiment derives, as a sort of parallel, from the oft-quoted: “How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.” - From The Sun Also Rises by Ernest Hemingway. So, I am not encouraged by trends - populism, protectionism, increasing divide between haves and have-nots, climate probl…
Thanks for your comment. I don't expect a "prediction", as as you said, we lack of data and knowledge, and most of the time, we are completely wrong. Nevertheless, some may become true. I just want to see the panel of ideas people can have, from their own eyes, own background and current situation.
Learning the past you can guestimate the future because fundamental human nature does not change https://youtu.be/bRcu-ysocX4
Re: Ask HN: What do you think the world would be in 6 months – 1 year
#6It looks like lockdowns are coming back. The great reset continues, but, like the virus itself, caused by incompetence and not some master plan.
Long term consequences of Covid continue to gain mindshare, damage already done with a "new normal" for far to many, like myself.
Re: Ask HN: What do you think the world would be in 6 months – 1 year
#7It's complicated. The thing to remember is that successful cultures don't throw away elements that work(ed). The same way our genes are 90% to 99% "junk" our cultures are full of assimilated, dormant beliefs, myths, legends, traditions, children's stories. I think masks are with us forever. They will become more fashion-statement, like a bow tie, but they are now a part of us. Get used to it. We are going to see more Luddite, technophobe splinter-groups. This is a backlash against manipulation. In any argument, he who defines the terms wins. In a connected world, those with the best surveillance get to define the terms so they win. Splinter cultures using religious-fueled techno-phobia-as-a-shield-against-reason will create oases of resistance to globalization. Transportation is already in trouble. That means food can't get to where it is needed. Food is like money - beneficial if spread around, but when too much collects in one place it begins to stink. Producers and consumers are symbiots - neither can survive without the other. Victory gardens will come back into vogue. Globalization is now a Chinese emphasis so they are going to win. China doesn't need the rest of the world - they can be their own best market. Western culture is a threat to their oligarchy but western culture is necessary as a technology incubator. The west is going to find itself living in a reservation, a wild-life preserve of an otherwise Chinese world. Climate change (human caused or natural) is going to disrupt trade causing the human population bubble to implode. This will take more than 12 months, but the avalanche has started and we are just along for the ride. China's asset (endless manpower) is also their vulnerability. The question is which will come first - the computer virus that ends domestic control of ideas, or the organic virus that "if it kills one it kills all." The good news is that we are not doomed to death; We are doomed to be different than we were. "It is nice to remember in times like these that there have always been times like these."
Re: Ask HN: What do you think the world would be in 6 months – 1 year
#8It looks like lockdowns are coming back. The great reset continues, but, like the virus itself, caused by incompetence and not some master plan. Long term consequences of Covid continue to gain mindshare, damage already done with a "new normal" for far to many, like myself.
I am currently reading the book of Schwab about the great reset, and their analysis in summer 2020.
I don't know if it is real "incompetence" or impossibility to make a good choice, i.e. there is no good option whatever. There are many states, with many different regimes, parliament from right to left, but everyone seems stuck with the same problem. Though, the number of tested options is very small. Contact tracing didn't work because people didn't trust the apps. Lockdown is a mess because it destroys the mind of people. Vaccination with the variants is still under test, and after that, I don't really see what have been seriously done abroad.
Long-term consequences, for sure. But we still don't know what would be the "new normal", and this uncertaincy is hurting a lot of people, for planing whatever. It is hard to plan even the next month even for simple stuff.
Re: Ask HN: What do you think the world would be in 6 months – 1 year
#9If you want to explore the dire side: check out the collapse subreddit.
Yes, I've checked it.
Some presents it as our future dystopia.
Other are more factual, saying this is the natural process, like Mayan, Egyptian, and other civilizations before.
I think this would happen at some point. But it is not instantaneous. There are different steps before complete civilization disintegration, which may takes maybe 10, 50, or 100 years.
Among the different civilization that collapsed, it often start with one event triggering the others. Today we have covid, next what do we have ? Collapsology allows to list all possible directions. My initial question was more "what are the week signals and what do you think it would transform into".
Re: Ask HN: What do you think the world would be in 6 months – 1 year
#10crypto is seeing massive changes, I'm sure it's gonna play a big part. my eyes on Ethereum PoS and EIP-1559