Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#1

Post by naskwo » Mon, Apr 05, 2021, 1:01 PM UTC

If you buy a mobile phone today, the choice is between Android and iOS, or, more specifically, between Samsung and Android.

[LG's announcement to stop making smartphones is a testament to how the technology and (economy of scale) of Apple and Samsung have evolved to a duopoly of smartphone brands. For most consumers, two choices are enough. Quick: name the third in line: Coca Cola, Pepsi and ...? Or McDonald's, Burger King and ...?)

Will the same happen for electric cars? Ford is already building their EVs on a VW chassis.

For example: whether you buy an electric Kia or electric Porsche, what are the real engineering differences between the car, considering:

- the drivetrain is electric - the center of gravity is lowered in almost all EVs because of the (current state of the art) of battery placement - Many key (security) parts are bought OEM from the same suppliers, including tyres, audio systems and airbags. - The manufacturer with the most driven miles will likely have the least amount of "bugs"

Will car brands go even more the way of fashion brands, where the difference between Porsche and Kia will be like the difference between Balenciaga and Nike: both are functional footwear, but I'd choose the Nikes and save the difference.

Will "internal luxury" and "prestige" take the overtone in marketing and branding for the next 20 years, as opposed to how "clean" a car is and the engineering of their engines? And, of this technology, how will supercar automakers adapt? E.g. why buy a Ferrari if the "soul" (engine) is replaced with an electric drivetrain that is likely less mature in engineering than what would be inside a Tesla S?

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#2

Post by throwaway0a5e » Mon, Apr 05, 2021, 1:30 PM UTC

Do you want an answer or do you just want lunchroom discussion? You may as well be asking for stock tips or tonight's lotto numbers. You won't find an answer that's accurate and reliable enough to be actionable here or anywhere.

If anyone could do more than idly speculate (probably dressed up with some tropes that play to the audience's confirmation bias to maximize virtue points) OEMs wouldn't be paying millions of dollars per year for the continued existence of their market and customer research teams.

The answers you're asking for don't yet exist. They are so many yet undetermined variables involved in predicting the future at the range you're asking about they're all just possibilities at this point.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#3

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Apr 05, 2021, 1:43 PM UTC

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#4

Post by JohnJamesRambo » Mon, Apr 05, 2021, 1:44 PM UTC

It will probably just stay the same as now. People will buy based on a perception of brand quality based on reliability, coupled with how the car looks on the inside and outside.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#5

Post by recuter » Mon, Apr 05, 2021, 1:45 PM UTC

Food for thought: https://newatlas.com/ree-modular-mobility-platform/60486/

Here's What The World's Cheapest Electric Car Is Like To Drive: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GG1RC7GV0Y

You can already order one of these golf-kart like cars from China for less than $5,000 shipped. An easy to mass produce skateboard platform is bound to emerge, so basically who ever has the cheapest reasonably good batteries and marketing wins.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#6

Post by pmorici » Mon, Apr 05, 2021, 1:47 PM UTC

At least in the next decade people are going to care about range, charge speed (measured in miles per hour, in part a measure of efficiency) and software quality.

So called super car brands will pivot to market on subjective qualities like “handling” since they can no longer complete on performance.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#7

Post by sokoloff » Mon, Apr 05, 2021, 1:52 PM UTC

For years now, you could buy a VW Touareg, Audi Q7, or Porsche Cayenne all built on a common platform. The three vehicles are still readily distinguishable in the market and driving experience.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#8

Post by naskwo » Mon, Apr 05, 2021, 1:53 PM UTC

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #4

It will probably just stay the same as now. People will buy based on a perception of brand quality based on reliability, coupled with how the car looks on the inside and outside.

My point for trying start a HN discussion on this topic is exactly this: I think that "perception" will be more narrow than it is now, as all cars look more and more alike, and the quantifiable differences such as:

- range - safety features - audio system - etc - acceleration

Will be more difficult for high-end brands (Range Roger, Porsche) to use as discerning factors if the "heart" of the vehicle is largely identical between a Kia and a Porsche.

Will luxury car makers go to the way of Vertu vs. iPhone, or Omega vs. Apple Watch?

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#9

Post by bionhoward » Mon, Apr 05, 2021, 1:54 PM UTC

I believe cars are way less important than people think. Ride sharing and WFH goes a long way. The elephant in the room is Augmented Reality. We're not talking enough about the consequences of AR for the economy.

If I have a normal car, and I'm wearing AR, I can re-skin it with unreal engine. The most interesting technologies aren't about transportation -- they're about human augmentation, transhumanism. A car is just too big to be a great augment. If I were CEO of Apple I would take a hard pass on "Apple Car" project and focus the company on AR.

Plus, cars are expensive. Not always a great investment, or necessary

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future differentiator in electric vehicles?

#10

Post by sokoloff » Mon, Apr 05, 2021, 1:54 PM UTC

pmorici wrote: post #6

At least in the next decade people are going to care about range, charge speed (measured in miles per hour, in part a measure of efficiency) and software quality. So called super car brands will pivot to market on subjective qualities like “handling” since they can no longer complete on performance.

It seems to me that the Taycan is competing quite favorably on performance and don’t see a reason to think that will go away by virtue of everyday $35K electrics having that same level of performance.