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Show HN: Comparison of Bitcoin, USD, Gold and Silver as a Store of Time

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Re: Show HN: Comparison of Bitcoin, USD, Gold and Silver as a Store of Time

#2

Post by roenxi »

This graph says Bitcoin is up something like 500x since 2013.

That isn't a store of time, it is a speculative return. Gold, silver & the US dollar all did pretty much what they are advertised and expected to do (go flat, flat and steady down in value respectively). Nobody knows what Bitcoin is going to do next.

What Bitcoin does has nothing to do with storage. Obviously we'd all rather have had Bitcoin from 2013 to 2021 than storage, but hindsight makes these decisions easy.

Re: Show HN: Comparison of Bitcoin, USD, Gold and Silver as a Store of Time

#4

Post by tom_mellior »

roenxi wrote: post #2

This graph says Bitcoin is up something like 500x since 2013. That isn't a store of time, it is a speculative return. Gold, silver & the US dollar all did pretty much what they are advertised and expected to do (go flat, flat and steady down in value respectively). Nobody knows what Bitcoin is going to do next. What Bitcoin does has nothing to do with storage. Obviously we'd all rather have had Bitcoin from 2013 to 2…

Both gold and silver had ~2x swings in the last two years (https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAG&to=USD, https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=USD). Not exactly "flat".

Re: Show HN: Comparison of Bitcoin, USD, Gold and Silver as a Store of Time

#6

Post by disruptalot »

roenxi wrote: post #2

This graph says Bitcoin is up something like 500x since 2013. That isn't a store of time, it is a speculative return. Gold, silver & the US dollar all did pretty much what they are advertised and expected to do (go flat, flat and steady down in value respectively). Nobody knows what Bitcoin is going to do next. What Bitcoin does has nothing to do with storage. Obviously we'd all rather have had Bitcoin from 2013 to 2…

Every position is more or less speculative. This is why "asset management" is a thing.

Nobody knows what gold or fiat is going to do next either:

- Fiat can be advertised in whichever way but ultimately there is no guarantee things will behave the same as it's centrally planned. The pandemic triggered unprecedented action from the money printer.

- Producing more efficient ways of mining gold, discovering new reserves on the planet or outwith will trigger a re pricing of gold's value.

The only meaningful horizon is time, and so far Bitcoin is doing well.

Re: Show HN: Comparison of Bitcoin, USD, Gold and Silver as a Store of Time

#9

Post by bawolff »

disruptalot wrote: post #6
roenxi wrote: post #2

This graph says Bitcoin is up something like 500x since 2013. That isn't a store of time, it is a speculative return. Gold, silver & the US dollar all did pretty much what they are advertised and expected to do (go flat, flat and steady down in value respectively). Nobody knows what Bitcoin is going to do next. What Bitcoin does has nothing to do with storage. Obviously we'd all rather have had Bitcoin from 2013 to 2…

Every position is more or less speculative. This is why "asset management" is a thing. Nobody knows what gold or fiat is going to do next either: - Fiat can be advertised in whichever way but ultimately there is no guarantee things will behave the same as it's centrally planned. The pandemic triggered unprecedented action from the money printer. - Producing more efficient ways of mining gold, discovering new reserves…

Nobody knows what anything is going to do for sure, but that doesn't mean we know nothing. Things that go way way up quickly tend not to be stable. Shit can change, but the probability of gold massively changing in value is much less than bitcoin taking a massive swing.
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