Our Thoughts on Bitcoin
bridgewater.com
Our Thoughts on Bitcoin
1–10 of 123 posts
Re: Our Thoughts on Bitcoin
#2The section about the fallacy of limited cryptocurrency supply is one of the key insights missing from many Bitcoin discussions:
> For those reasons the “limited supply” argument isn’t as true as it might appear—e.g., if Blackberries were in limited supply they still wouldn’t be worth much because they were replaced by competitors that were more advanced.
I agree that Bitcoin is interesting as an alternative asset, but the narratives have outstripped the facts as it becomes just another speculative trading instrument on the non-blockchain exchanges.
Re: Our Thoughts on Bitcoin
#3Yesterday bitcoin's average transaction fee was over $31. Bitcoin Cash and Ethereum both exceed bitcoin's transaction count consistently now, with Ethereum far exceeding bitcoin's crippled transaction capacity.
Re: Our Thoughts on Bitcoin
#4The section about the fallacy of limited cryptocurrency supply is one of the key insights missing from many Bitcoin discussions: > For those reasons the “limited supply” argument isn’t as true as it might appear—e.g., if Blackberries were in limited supply they still wouldn’t be worth much because they were replaced by competitors that were more advanced. I agree that Bitcoin is interesting as an alternative asset, b…
What's the fallacy you're debunking, and who commits it? I'm not aware of anyone arguing that Bitcoin is highly valuable because all things with a limited supply are highly valuable.
Re: Our Thoughts on Bitcoin
#5> while those who are against it (which are a few scared souls cowering in a corner)
Way to win over your audience.
Re: Our Thoughts on Bitcoin
#6The section about the fallacy of limited cryptocurrency supply is one of the key insights missing from many Bitcoin discussions: > For those reasons the “limited supply” argument isn’t as true as it might appear—e.g., if Blackberries were in limited supply they still wouldn’t be worth much because they were replaced by competitors that were more advanced. I agree that Bitcoin is interesting as an alternative asset, b…
I said this years ago, only I used Nokia instead of BlackBerry (see slides ##8-11):
Re: Our Thoughts on Bitcoin
#7The section about the fallacy of limited cryptocurrency supply is one of the key insights missing from many Bitcoin discussions: > For those reasons the “limited supply” argument isn’t as true as it might appear—e.g., if Blackberries were in limited supply they still wouldn’t be worth much because they were replaced by competitors that were more advanced. I agree that Bitcoin is interesting as an alternative asset, b…
The analogy doesn't really work because cryptocurrencies aren't interchangeable the way phones are. A better analogy would be if each phone could only talk to people using the same phone brand. If everyone is on iphone and you need an iphone to talk to anyone you care about, the iphone becomes more valuable because of its scarcity. The network effects of bitcoin and the lack of interchangeability between different cryptocurrencies helps secure bitcoin's spot as the leader.
Re: Our Thoughts on Bitcoin
#8The section about the fallacy of limited cryptocurrency supply is one of the key insights missing from many Bitcoin discussions: > For those reasons the “limited supply” argument isn’t as true as it might appear—e.g., if Blackberries were in limited supply they still wouldn’t be worth much because they were replaced by competitors that were more advanced. I agree that Bitcoin is interesting as an alternative asset, b…
Bitcoin is an asset in the same way that a piece of paper with my signature on it is an asset. Why some people think cryptocurrencies are revolutionary is beyond my comprehension.
Re: Our Thoughts on Bitcoin
#9Yesterday bitcoin's average transaction fee was over $31. Bitcoin Cash and Ethereum both exceed bitcoin's transaction count consistently now, with Ethereum far exceeding bitcoin's crippled transaction capacity.
Yes, this was absent from the analysis. Bitcoins security derives from computer power which is currently paid by combination of fees and inflation (mining). We have yet to see what happens to the prices and security when mining dries out.
It would also be interesting to see a large market event that causes many people to move bitcoin at once. (What happens to transaction costs? Does this affect perception of bitcoin as a safe store of value?)
Re: Our Thoughts on Bitcoin
#10The section about the fallacy of limited cryptocurrency supply is one of the key insights missing from many Bitcoin discussions: > For those reasons the “limited supply” argument isn’t as true as it might appear—e.g., if Blackberries were in limited supply they still wouldn’t be worth much because they were replaced by competitors that were more advanced. I agree that Bitcoin is interesting as an alternative asset, b…
That’s the underappreciated argument. If we to assume that the collective will power is all it takes to create an alternative asset, e.g. the narrative “gold is old, we need a new one” then it follows that it can and will be repeated. I don’t see why people not born yet would play by the rules of the future “Bitcoin wealthy elites” when they could become elites themselves by hyping another asset/cryptocoin instead. Thus even if the narrative of “store of value” and “hedge against inflation” turns out to be correct, I still don’t believe Bitcoin supremacy will last longer than a single human generation.