Ask HN: What are examples of technology “lotteries”?

#1

Post by BayezLyfe » Sat, Feb 13, 2021, 1:54 PM UTC

Let's define "technology lottery" as an idea/concept/invention/innovation that wins out not because of technological superiority, but rather due to fortuitous circumstances relative to alternative directions. One example could be AC vs DC electricity [1], another could be the invention of gas vs electric cars [2]. What are more examples of technology lotteries?

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_the_currents

[2] https://wisdombiscuits.com/which-came-first-the-electric-car-or-the-gasoline-car/

Re: Ask HN: What are examples of technology “lotteries”?

#2

Post by PaulHoule » Sat, Feb 13, 2021, 1:56 PM UTC

Bezier curves in computer graphics.

Re: Ask HN: What are examples of technology “lotteries”?

#3

Post by boltzmannbrain » Sat, Feb 13, 2021, 1:59 PM UTC

PaulHoule wrote: post #2

Bezier curves in computer graphics.

What are the alternatives that didn't win out?

Re: Ask HN: What are examples of technology “lotteries”?

#4

Post by mimixco » Sat, Feb 13, 2021, 2:00 PM UTC

VHS vs. Beta is a classic.

Re: Ask HN: What are examples of technology “lotteries”?

#5

Post by mimixco » Sat, Feb 13, 2021, 2:01 PM UTC

737s vs. Everything invented since

Re: Ask HN: What are examples of technology “lotteries”?

#6

Post by jonas_kgomo » Sat, Feb 13, 2021, 2:16 PM UTC

Actually the term is defined in a Google article called hardware lotteries[0], describing software theories that make it because of existing hardware.

[0] https://hardwarelottery.github.io/

Re: Ask HN: What are examples of technology “lotteries”?

#7

Post by gus_massa » Sat, Feb 13, 2021, 2:39 PM UTC

The AC won because it is easier to build AC transformers, it is not a lottery. (The 50 vs 60 Hz is a lottery, though.)

Re: Ask HN: What are examples of technology “lotteries”?

#8

Post by PaulHoule » Sat, Feb 13, 2021, 2:47 PM UTC

boltzmannbrain wrote: post #3

PaulHoule wrote: post #2

Bezier curves in computer graphics.

What are the alternatives that didn't win out?

NURBS for one thing.

Re: Ask HN: What are examples of technology “lotteries”?

#9

Post by mimixco » Sat, Feb 13, 2021, 4:36 PM UTC

PaulHoule wrote: post #8

boltzmannbrain wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are the alternatives that didn't win out?

NURBS for one thing.

Thank you for this! I had never heard of these and I hate Bezier curves. I can never figure out how to manipulate them. The history in this Wikipedia article is fascinating, too, and how "splines" came to be from wood models. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-uniform_rational_B-spline

Re: Ask HN: What are examples of technology “lotteries”?

#10

Post by boltzmannbrain » Sat, Feb 13, 2021, 6:48 PM UTC

jonas_kgomo wrote: post #6

Actually the term is defined in a Google article called hardware lotteries[0], describing software theories that make it because of existing hardware. [0] https://hardwarelottery.github.io/

Great writeup. The definition here is a bit different and more general.