The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan
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The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan
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Re: The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan
#2The author blames the US for chipping away its treaty agreements and paints the Taiwanese as naively pinning their hopes on US intervention, but China is far from an innocent party in this.
There would be no treaty or peace if Taiwan actively tried to arm itself back in the 80s, 90s, or 2000s.
I’m not sure what koolaid the ambassador is drinking, but we’re (as in, the US and most of the world) past any pretenses.
Re: The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan
#3Not sure I agree with the ambassador that China handed Taiwan over to Japan “nonchalantly,” in 1895. He certainly is more the expert than I am, but a lot of potential “bad China takes,” in this piece.
Re: The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan
#4This is the same Ambassador who noted:
Tian'anmen, 1989:
“The Politburo’s response to the mob scene at ‘Tian’anmen’ stands as a monument to overly cautious behavior on the part of the leadership, not as an example of rash action,” Freeman wrote at the time. “I do not believe it is acceptable for any country to allow the heart of its national capital to be occupied by dissidents intent on disrupting the normal functions of government, however appealing to foreigners their propaganda may be.” National Review, 2020-07-31.[0]
[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_W._Freeman_Jr.#China
Re: The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan
#5I recently asked Chinese coworkers (young, very educated, living abroad) about what they think about this and there were both supporting forceful annexation and thought it will happen someday. Given their profile, the average Chinese staying at home is probably thinking the same too, and supporting invasion too. Pretty depressing.
Re: The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan
#6It appears to me that we’re back into imperialism before the end of the century. Who will stop China if they want to expand? Nobody stopped Russia a few years ago. Hong Kong got fucked this year and nobody did anything.
China could expand into Kashmir and definitively “own” the South China Sea, including Taiwan.
Who will go to war with China? No one.
Re: The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan
#7I have been in Taiwan multiple times on business, but all trips came in two distinct time periods: about 1998 and then 2008. Each time I have spent several weeks there - not a two day trip like airport-hotel-client-hotel-airport. I had a chance to spend weekends with colleagues, and observe how locals spend time.
During the first stint (1998) I was impressed how proudly anti-communist the Taiwanese were. Proud of their independence and held Chiang Kai-Shek in high regard. The Chiang Kai-Shek mausoleum was bustling with crowds - I enjoed strolling around there on weekends. During my second stint (2008), the Chiang Kai-Shek mausoleum was a sorry sight - almost nobody around, most of it closed off for "renovation" and it felt desolate. I also detected a significant shift towards unification with China among my colleagues. I can only hope that Taiwan paid close attention to Hong Kong. I'd hate to see such a bustling, open and full of great people country fall under Chinese control.
Re: The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan
#8Its been a long time since any ships of the US Navy were sunk.
If and when war breaks out, the Navy will lose some big ships. I suppose that any fleet west of Hawaii would be at risk.
Anyway, an early target will be the TMSC fab in Taiwan where all the best chips are made. That alone would be terrible.
Re: The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan
#9I have been in Taiwan multiple times on business, but all trips came in two distinct time periods: about 1998 and then 2008. Each time I have spent several weeks there - not a two day trip like airport-hotel-client-hotel-airport. I had a chance to spend weekends with colleagues, and observe how locals spend time. During the first stint (1998) I was impressed how proudly anti-communist the Taiwanese were. Proud of the…
The truth is, China do not want to control Taiwan, and China do not want to lose Taiwan. Sounds contradict but because it is. Let's take Hong Kong for example, Hong Kong has changed China's view on this issue completely. Hong Kong would be a much better asset for China if it is independent but stay Chinese. China does not need another city. The problem is that even though Hong Kong is Chinese, the movement of seeking independence (I am sure you can find how some parliament members' display of 'fuck China' during inauguration would upset Chinese government) has lead to a stage, where Chinese government would be very worries if they don't have the control of Hong Kong. Now they are looking at this 'one country two systems' differently, because one party will not respect 'one country' and the other party will not respect 'two systems'. The same is Taiwan. One option is to have a friendly state, it is not going to happy; the other option is to have a independent state, China will not allow it to happen. Taking Taiwan does not really benefit China, but from the government's eye, if the relationship don't change, and Taiwan declare independence in one way or the other, China will be forced to react or suffer the chain reaction of the result of it.
Re: The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan
#10I recently asked Chinese coworkers (young, very educated, living abroad) about what they think about this and there were both supporting forceful annexation and thought it will happen someday. Given their profile, the average Chinese staying at home is probably thinking the same too, and supporting invasion too. Pretty depressing.
I think the highly educated Chinese who ventured overseas (which you need to be affluent to do it) doesn’t really represent the majority of the Chinese population at all.