Matthew Simmons: The only way is down

#1

Post by kradic » Sun, Jul 13, 2008, 6:24 PM UTC

Matthew Simmons: The only way is down
economist.com

Re: Matthew Simmons: The only way is down

#2

Post by patrickg-zill » Sun, Jul 13, 2008, 8:34 PM UTC

You don't need to read the Economist. All you have to do is look at the numbers from DOE themselves, and make up your own mind.

Personally I believe we are nowhere near peak oil, due to Bakken, the unexplored resources off USA coastal shorelines, ANWR drilling that should be undertaken, etc.

Plus for natural gas we have the undersea hydrates that we haven't quite figured out how to mine cheaply (yet).

Re: Matthew Simmons: The only way is down

#3

Post by giardini » Sun, Jul 13, 2008, 9:00 PM UTC

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of [The Black Swan](http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp...) suggests not listening to men who wears ties, especially when they are making predictions about the future.

The fellow's predictions in the past have missed the big events: don't bother trusting his newest predictions.

Re: Matthew Simmons: The only way is down

#4

Post by wynand » Sun, Jul 13, 2008, 10:40 PM UTC

giardini wrote: post #3

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of [The Black Swan]( http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp... ) suggests not listening to men who wears ties, especially when they are making predictions about the future. The fellow's predictions in the past have missed the big events: don't bother trusting his newest predictions.

One should be wary of anyone making predictions (those in ties are just especially annoying because they take themselves so seriously). Mr. Simmons says he doesn't believe we will discover any other energy sources that will deliver sufficient energy. Then he claims only to base his predictions on data. The past can tell us nothing about future invention.

That said, it's about time for the world to turn the Black Swan of peak oil into a Grey Swan (to use Mr. Taleb's expression). We really ought to start preparing to soften the blow. The current alarm is also inspiring bright folks to research alternative energy sources and that can only be good for us in the long term.

Re: Matthew Simmons: The only way is down

#5

Post by shuleatt » Sun, Jul 13, 2008, 11:19 PM UTC

Great video clip with Simmons http://www.bit.ly/peakoil

Re: Matthew Simmons: The only way is down

#6

Post by ligniteman » Mon, Jul 14, 2008, 8:39 PM UTC

patrickg-zill wrote: post #2

You don't need to read the Economist. All you have to do is look at the numbers from DOE themselves, and make up your own mind. Personally I believe we are nowhere near peak oil, due to Bakken, the unexplored resources off USA coastal shorelines, ANWR drilling that should be undertaken, etc. Plus for natural gas we have the undersea hydrates that we haven't quite figured out how to mine cheaply (yet).

I definitely agree with you on this one patrick....

And I have done a bit of research into the "undersea natural gas hydrates"......

That is a fascinating phenomenon. Deposits are gargantuan but, man, I wouldn't want to be working the rigs that explore for them.

If you drill into a deposit the natural gas will start bubbling to the surface and when this happens your platform loses flotation and sinks. This has already happened to one or two rigs working the North Sea with loss of all hands.

By comparison, nuclear fission is much, much safer.