Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
1–10 of 73 posts
Re: Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
#2Interesting. An estimate that infections were multiple orders of magnitude higher than detected in mid-March is higher than I'd heard before, although I suppose it's probably implied by the "basically everyone in New York caught it" theory.
Re: Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
#3Interesting. An estimate that infections were multiple orders of magnitude higher than detected in mid-March is higher than I'd heard before, although I suppose it's probably implied by the "basically everyone in New York caught it" theory.
I don't know a single person in NY who wasn't coughing for a week at some point between january and march.
Re: Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
#4Interesting. An estimate that infections were multiple orders of magnitude higher than detected in mid-March is higher than I'd heard before, although I suppose it's probably implied by the "basically everyone in New York caught it" theory.
I don't know a single person in NY who wasn't coughing for a week at some point between january and march.
The problem with this is that people have many reasons to cough. You could say that same statement for any year and it would be accurate.
Re: Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
#5I seem to be hitting trying to read this. Can someone help summarize the results of this analysis?
Re: Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
#6Interesting. An estimate that infections were multiple orders of magnitude higher than detected in mid-March is higher than I'd heard before, although I suppose it's probably implied by the "basically everyone in New York caught it" theory.
I had wondered how the current new cases / day in NY were so low as compared to other areas. This seems likely to be at least part of it.
What's the theory on why other places that were hit hard early are still quite high...like California? Lower density?
Re: Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
#7Interesting. An estimate that infections were multiple orders of magnitude higher than detected in mid-March is higher than I'd heard before, although I suppose it's probably implied by the "basically everyone in New York caught it" theory.
I had wondered how the current new cases / day in NY were so low as compared to other areas. This seems likely to be at least part of it. What's the theory on why other places that were hit hard early are still quite high...like California? Lower density?
California wasn't hit very hard early. In terms of total reported cases, they're only just now starting to catch up with New York (21 per thousand for the state vs 17 per thousand for California) - and as we catch up we've had a pretty sharp improvement from the peak in July.
The theory is that California flattened the curve in the original sense, delaying the peak in order to ensure it's moderately lower and protect the capacity of the healthcare system.
Re: Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
#8Interesting. An estimate that infections were multiple orders of magnitude higher than detected in mid-March is higher than I'd heard before, although I suppose it's probably implied by the "basically everyone in New York caught it" theory.
As nice as it would be, seroprevalence studies have ruled out the "basically everyone in New York caught it" theory.
Re: Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
#9Interesting. An estimate that infections were multiple orders of magnitude higher than detected in mid-March is higher than I'd heard before, although I suppose it's probably implied by the "basically everyone in New York caught it" theory.
I don't know a single person in NY who wasn't coughing for a week at some point between january and march.
In the last few days of January and two weeks in early February in Manhattan, I (26M) got quite sick. The first few days were pretty bad and I had 102F fever. I had lots of difficulty breathing and a dry cough for around 2 weeks after. A friend/co-worker who sits next to me at work had essentially identical symptoms 12 hours before me lasting for similar amount of time. I think his breathing problems were less bad than mine.
The worst hit me on the weekend and I returned to work on Monday with the cough.
Around 1 week prior I attended a company holiday party at a large museum with (probably?) one thousand attendees from all over the world. They mostly came from the EU, but at least some from APAC as well.
I have no evidence that this was COVID-19, but in retrospect the symptoms matched reasonably well and I haven't been sick since.
Re: Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
I had wondered how the current new cases / day in NY were so low as compared to other areas. This seems likely to be at least part of it. What's the theory on why other places that were hit hard early are still quite high...like California? Lower density?
California wasn't hit very hard early. In terms of total reported cases, they're only just now starting to catch up with New York (21 per thousand for the state vs 17 per thousand for California) - and as we catch up we've had a pretty sharp improvement from the peak in July. The theory is that California flattened the curve in the original sense, delaying the peak in order to ensure it's moderately lower and protect…
Louisiana, then?