Shutdowns prevented 60M coronavirus infections in the U.S., study finds
washingtonpost.com
Shutdowns prevented 60M coronavirus infections in the U.S., study finds
1–10 of 14 posts
Re: Shutdowns prevented 60M coronavirus infections in the U.S., study finds
#2So far.
Re: Shutdowns prevented 60M coronavirus infections in the U.S., study finds
#3Just like the Fed's multiple rounds QE resulted in millions of "jobs saved"...
Sounds like an justification for the failed predictions more than anything.
Re: Shutdowns prevented 60M coronavirus infections in the U.S., study finds
#4So far.
Exactly. I believe the 60 million infections delta was estimated for April 6th (figure 4), so the counterfactual would be considerably worse as of today.
Re: Shutdowns prevented 60M coronavirus infections in the U.S., study finds
#5So far.
"So far" meaning "might save more later" or "only postponed, not prevented"?
Re: Shutdowns prevented 60M coronavirus infections in the U.S., study finds
#6Study suggests, not finds. Simulation models can't "find" facts. Observation finds facts.
Re: Shutdowns prevented 60M coronavirus infections in the U.S., study finds
#7Re: Shutdowns prevented 60M coronavirus infections in the U.S., study finds
#8"Received: 22 March 2020" - direct from the study cover page at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8_reference....
States imposed lockdowns between March 21 and early April. Someone want to explain to me how a study submitted before the lockdowns were issued (nevermind had time to actually have an impact) "found" those results?
Re: Shutdowns prevented 60M coronavirus infections in the U.S., study finds
#9Simulacrum.
Re: Shutdowns prevented 60M coronavirus infections in the U.S., study finds
#10So far.
"So far" meaning "might save more later" or "only postponed, not prevented"?
By now we have learned that masks + distancing is enough to stop this (Drive R0 below 1, it will die out in time.) If we were serious about doing these things the cases--and deaths--would be prevented, not merely postponed.