There’s No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence (2017)
intelligence.org
There’s No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence (2017)
1–10 of 130 posts
Re: There’s No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence (2017)
#2Needs an editor tbh, far too long and waffly.
I'm guessing from the title there may be a useful point to it, but it could do with some tough love to unearth it.
Re: There’s No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence (2017)
#3Needs an editor tbh, far too long and waffly. I'm guessing from the title there may be a useful point to it, but it could do with some tough love to unearth it.
Since MIRI is all about the threat of advanced AI wiping out humanity, I assume their point is that AI could get past the point of no return without people realizing it (hence the titular lack of fire alarm) so they'd prefer you to send them money to study the threat of AI sooner rather than later.
Re: There’s No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence (2017)
#4Needs an editor tbh, far too long and waffly. I'm guessing from the title there may be a useful point to it, but it could do with some tough love to unearth it.
"progress is closer than you might imagine"
Re: There’s No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence (2017)
#5That's because there won't be AGI in my or my children's lifetime. We are successfully solving some perceptual problems now, but cognition is so far out of reach, nobody has even started working on it yet.
Re: There’s No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence (2017)
#6“Intelligence is situational — there is no such thing as general intelligence. Your brain is one piece in a broader system which includes your body, your environment, other humans, and culture as a whole. […] Currently, our environment, not our brain, is acting as the bottleneck to our intelligence.”
“Human intelligence is largely externalized, contained not in our brain but in our civilization. We are our tools — our brains are modules in a cognitive system much larger than ourselves. A system that is already self-improving, and has been for a long time.”
“Recursively self-improving systems, because of contingent bottlenecks, diminishing returns, and counter-reactions […], cannot achieve exponential progress in practice. Empirically, they tend to display linear or sigmoidal improvement.”
“Recursive intelligence expansion is already happening — at the level of our civilization. It will keep happening in the age of AI, and it progresses at a roughly linear pace.“
François Chollet
https://medium.com/@francois.chollet/the-impossibility-of-in...
Re: There’s No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence (2017)
#7“Intelligence is situational — there is no such thing as general intelligence. Your brain is one piece in a broader system which includes your body, your environment, other humans, and culture as a whole. […] Currently, our environment, not our brain, is acting as the bottleneck to our intelligence.” “Human intelligence is largely externalized, contained not in our brain but in our civilization. We are our tools — ou…
[deleted]
Re: There’s No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence (2017)
#8The best AI minds are still working on AI consistently recognizing stop signs.
Re: There’s No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence (2017)
#9A few things here immediately reminded me of an article I recently read about how, regardless of whether or not SARS-CoV-2 was "created" in a lab, the knowledge and tools for such genetic engineering have reached the point where it would have been no great feat to do so.
> Progress is driven by peak knowledge, not average knowledge.
The cutting-edge researchers are already building on their work from two years ago, and in many cases that work has not even been fully digested by other leading figures in the field, much less industry commentators or science journalists. Anyone who is moving the needle of peak knowledge in modern applied sciences is by definition an outlier, and it will take everyone else a while to figure out what they actually accomplished.
> The future uses different tools, and can therefore easily do things that are very hard now, or do with difficulty things that are impossible now.
The second point seems extremely salient for genetic engineering. From what I have read, processes that required the full resources and expertise of a cutting-edge lab 10 years ago can now be performed by grad student technicians in a few hours with kits manufactured by biotech startups.
Re: There’s No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence (2017)
#10Needs an editor tbh, far too long and waffly. I'm guessing from the title there may be a useful point to it, but it could do with some tough love to unearth it.
It's not going to fit in a twitter thread, for sure, but I didn't find it hard to read and parse, even with the short attention span I have these days.
I think the author is just writing in a frame of mind where he has dealt with a lot of people arguing with him, and he feels the need to stem the tide of common counterarguments to each point he makes before he moves to his next point. To me, that's actually less distracting then when an author ignores an important counterargument and leaves it unaddressed while continuing their point.