Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period
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Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period
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Re: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period
#2"To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022."
Wow -- seems very unlikely to happen though.
Re: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period
#3"To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022." Wow -- seems very unlikely to happen though.
Intermittent seems quite possible. Every time the death rate spikes, we'll have to lock down again.
Chances are, some region will decide against doing that, and their outcome will provide a clear incentive for everyone else to be more rigorous about it.
Re: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period
#4This paper seems to have every imaginable scenario of which 2022 is a worst case.
But, now actual data is starting to come in - such as the extremely interesting serum testing in Scotland (1) - which suggests that the infection rate is much much higher than previously supposed. The Scotland serum testing shows that around 35000 people were infected at a time when only 110 cases were known officially, and strongly suggests that at least 10%-20% of the country have been infected by now.
Similar data has been suggested by the Danish serum testing.
So I'd be interested to see what comes out of this Harvard model if they put in the numbers suggested from serum testing.
1. https://figshare.com/articles/Serological_analysis_of_1000_S... )
Re: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period
#5This article brings up something I was thinking about when this all first started: cross-immunity with other coronaviruses and whether or not infection with one of them could at least give partial immunity to SARS-CoV-2. As the study points out, there are less harmful human coronaviruses which are thought to cause around 15% of common colds worldwide.
I wonder if anybody has thought to research using these viruses as part of an innoculation strategy at least for high-risk groups. After all the first 'vaccine' ever developed in the 18th century (really an innoculation) was to intentionally give people cowpox in order to give them immunity to smallpox.
Maybe it's too risky though for some reason? I dunno.
Re: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period
#6This article brings up something I was thinking about when this all first started: cross-immunity with other coronaviruses and whether or not infection with one of them could at least give partial immunity to SARS-CoV-2. As the study points out, there are less harmful human coronaviruses which are thought to cause around 15% of common colds worldwide. I wonder if anybody has thought to research using these viruses as…
The existing human coronaviruses aren't the most well-researched things around, but as I understand it there's evidence infection with them might actually be pretty dangerous to at-risk people. They just can't cause a pandemic because too many people are immune.
Re: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period
#7This paper seems to have every imaginable scenario of which 2022 is a worst case. But, now actual data is starting to come in - such as the extremely interesting serum testing in Scotland (1) - which suggests that the infection rate is much much higher than previously supposed. The Scotland serum testing shows that around 35000 people were infected at a time when only 110 cases were known officially, and strongly sug…
When “sero samples” are done like this is there any effort to notify the donors their blood has been tested and come back positive for the antibodies? Ideally donors would be notified either way but at the very least I think the people with positive results ought to be informed.
Re: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period
#8This paper seems to have every imaginable scenario of which 2022 is a worst case. But, now actual data is starting to come in - such as the extremely interesting serum testing in Scotland (1) - which suggests that the infection rate is much much higher than previously supposed. The Scotland serum testing shows that around 35000 people were infected at a time when only 110 cases were known officially, and strongly sug…
That's a lot of interpretation from 6 cases. There's a lot of serological testing being done right now, and we'll have hard data soon, but from what I see from expert epidemiologists (disclosure: I'm not one myself), the idea that we have a vast number of completely asymptomatic cases is wishful thinking.
Re: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period
#9This paper seems to have every imaginable scenario of which 2022 is a worst case. But, now actual data is starting to come in - such as the extremely interesting serum testing in Scotland (1) - which suggests that the infection rate is much much higher than previously supposed. The Scotland serum testing shows that around 35000 people were infected at a time when only 110 cases were known officially, and strongly sug…
When “sero samples” are done like this is there any effort to notify the donors their blood has been tested and come back positive for the antibodies? Ideally donors would be notified either way but at the very least I think the people with positive results ought to be informed.
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Re: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period
#10This article brings up something I was thinking about when this all first started: cross-immunity with other coronaviruses and whether or not infection with one of them could at least give partial immunity to SARS-CoV-2. As the study points out, there are less harmful human coronaviruses which are thought to cause around 15% of common colds worldwide. I wonder if anybody has thought to research using these viruses as…
The existing human coronaviruses aren't the most well-researched things around, but as I understand it there's evidence infection with them might actually be pretty dangerous to at-risk people. They just can't cause a pandemic because too many people are immune.
The common cold is dangerous to people? The flu, sure, but I never heard of people dying from a cold. I'm sure it happens, but in comparable numbers though? I don't think so.