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Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?

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Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?

#1
The US Fed is at 0% interest rates and there is increasing speculation they might go to negative interest rates. There are already other central banks around the world in negative interest rate territory.

How do you prosper under a situation like that? What would you do or plan to do?

For example, should I stop saving? Should I put my savings elsewhere? Should I take out loans to buy up assets? Should I build businesses and raise venture capital for them?

I was brought up to work diligently, not take on debt, and save - a simple approach to building wealth - but I'm concerned that will put me at a disadvantage under an economic system with negative rates.

Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?

#3
Curious to hear other people’s thoughts but don’t think you can look at negative rates in a vacuum, but rather also have a view on inflation as well as asset prices (housing, equities, etc)

E.g. in a world of negative interest rates and 0% inflation just holding physical cash solves most of your problem - however that does not solve your problem in a world of positive inflation and negative rates - then you need to be able to make up the difference on asset price gains...

Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?

#4
> I was brought up to work diligently, not take on debt, and save - a simple approach to building wealth - but I'm concerned that will put me at a disadvantage under an economic system with negative rates.

Interesting take. Why would you be at a disadvantage and to whom would this be in relation to? I think it's fair to say that in the very long term inflation, etc will erode the value of your cash, but I imagine that there is still value in saving. I'm not sure these rates will last forever anyway.

Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?

#5
The easiest and least exciting answer is to buy treasuries now as rates have not hit rock bottom and if the crystal ball said interest rates were lower in the future, bonds bought now would raise in value just like in normal times. Someone bought a 50 year government bond in Austria I think and the interest rate moved a smidge and the value of his bond went up a whopping 50%

I was laughing when greek debt was issued with sky high interest rates. Since it was back stopped by the ECB some saw it as a no lose scenario. I wonder what happened to those bonds. They aren't in default afaik.

Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?

#6
This is one take —- 0% or negative interest rates are a signal that future consumption is more expensive than current consumption.

For example, all my furniture is ~10 years old from Ikea. I’ve always wanted nicer things. The fence in the back needs some repairs. Maybe I should finally hire a contractor to fix it.

Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?

#7
My opinion: Creating value is still worthwhile - no matter what is going on with the currency, it's still used for exchange. So if you're creating value you'll be fine. A friendly reminder: value is determined by the customer.

For myself, I am betting that tangible assets that provide value would be preferable to assets that just sit there. Value investing and prudent real-estate are where I'll be concentrating my efforts if I have spare money.

Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?

#8
You have to look at real rates, not nominal rates. The only markets that have negative nominal rates are battling deflation (which the US is not) or have serious liquidity concerns at the moment. The Fed is unlikely to go negative as they face a very different beast.

Here's a quick example. Let's say you're in a deflationary environment: in 1 year, your money actually buys you more than it did last year, let's say for instance, 2% more. Under this weird environment, you would actually be willing to pay someone to hold your money for a year, because you know in a years time, it will buy you 2% more (effectively a 2% return). So, since you don't want to store that money under your mattress, how much will you pay someone? Let's say you pay your bank 0.5% for holding your money (i.e. negative rate). So in a years time, you get 99.5% of your money back from the bank, but it buys you 2% more "stuff" so really, compared to today, you're getting 101.5% (roughly) of your money back, which is the same as a 1.5% interest rate. This is called the "real" interest rate, and it's the only one that matters.

Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?

#9

> I was brought up to work diligently, not take on debt, and save - a simple approach to building wealth - but I'm concerned that will put me at a disadvantage under an economic system with negative rates. Interesting take. Why would you be at a disadvantage and to whom would this be in relation to? I think it's fair to say that in the very long term inflation, etc will erode the value of your cash, but I imagine tha…

I'm going to oversimplify here, but negative interest rates effectively mean you pay the bank to store your money. So on top of inflation, you're losing real money. For someone who saves, negative interest rates mean savers end up with less money at the end of each year, and since OP indicated their preference to saving, that puts them at a disadvantage.

Negative interest rates also that you get paid for taking out debt, which is a tremendous opportunity to buy something that costs $100 for less than $100, but because OP indicated their aversion to taking on debt, this puts them at a disadvantage.

Re: Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?

#10
I'm not a financial planner or financial services professional of any kind, so take anything I say with a grain of salt.

1) should I stop saving?

No. negative interest rates won't go that negative. Even if your bank is earning -1% interest, it still makes sense to be saving.

2) Should I put my savings elsewhere?

Probably. ETFs or index funds with wide stock market exposure are a good idea (good examples are SPY, VOO, VO, VFINX... and many others). You make money by buying stocks when the market is low and selling when the market is high. Long term, it will probably go up as it always has. That said, it's very hard to time the market, so the best strategy is to put your money in over time. One good way to do this is to take a set amount of money from each paycheck and invest it every pay period, regardless of what the market is at. If you have a bunch of money sitting in savings right now, maybe divide it into 52 parts (or 104 or 156 or even 208 depending on your risk tolerance and/or thoughts on how long this market decline will last) and invest that amount each week.

3) Should I take out loans to buy up assets?

Probably not. No one is gonna give you an unsecured loan at a good enough rate that will make this worthwhile. And a secured loan will be against something like a house, which you probably don't want to risk losing. This is almost never a good idea.

One big exception might be buying a home. When the dust settles, the real estate market might take a big hit in which case taking out a loan (i.e. a mortgage) to buy a home might be a good idea.

4) Should I build businesses and raise venture capital for them?

Depends on the business. Venture capital money is going to tighten up a lot. People just aren't going to be throwing around money during a recession in the way that they did 6 months ago. But if you can stomach it, this is probably as good a time as ever to build a business that can get to profitability quickly. The only caveat is that it might be a risky time to quit a job with a stable income. Typically, it's easy to take for granted that if your business fails you can just get a job. Right now, that seems less certain.

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