On “Armchair Epidemiology”
scottaaronson.com
On “Armchair Epidemiology”
1–10 of 79 posts
Re: On “Armchair Epidemiology”
#2If this current situation has taught me anything it is that the internet is a mush of armchair garbage and it’s overwhelming to decipher- yes even what I’m typing now.
The whole thing has me desperate to ignore everyone and read a book. What a joke; to think we are all somehow experts.
Re: On “Armchair Epidemiology”
#3Looking back at my thinking at the same time I am also ashamed at how slow I was to realize it.
I also trusted in our institutions. I knew what lengths that they went to in SARS. I understood how much thought has gone into public health. I found articles explaining why one would rationally ration available tests. Even when it was clear to me that we were in for a pandemic and millions would die, I completely failed to predict that we'd be willing to put Western countries in lockdown - or that lockdown would be as effective as it has been.
I probably came to the right conclusion before Scott did. But still the only thing that I did right with my knowledge was to tell my wife to buy a put on the DOW back when it was still rising.
Re: On “Armchair Epidemiology”
#4Let's talk first about the domain experts, professors in prestigious universities, that were reassuring the public that COVID-19 is no way more fatal than the seasonal flu [1]. The same moment that the ICUs in Italy and Spain were already overwhelmed and the physicians could not find the necessary protective equipment to keep saving lives.
Are there gonna be any legal repercussions to these?
[1]https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as...
Re: On “Armchair Epidemiology”
#5Who should we believe, then, the WHO? They told us China had it under control, and not to wear masks
Re: On “Armchair Epidemiology”
#6If this current situation has taught me anything it is that the internet is a mush of armchair garbage and it’s overwhelming to decipher- yes even what I’m typing now. The whole thing has me desperate to ignore everyone and read a book. What a joke; to think we are all somehow experts.
Unclear if you read the article and are voicing disagreement with it, but Scott Aaronson is in fact defending armchair epidemiology.
Re: On “Armchair Epidemiology”
#7Let's talk first about the domain experts, professors in prestigious universities, that were reassuring the public that COVID-19 is no way more fatal than the seasonal flu [1]. The same moment that the ICUs in Italy and Spain were already overwhelmed and the physicians could not find the necessary protective equipment to keep saving lives. Are there gonna be any legal repercussions to these? [1] https://www.wsj.com/a…
what are you talking about? that article is contemporary, they havent been proven wrong.
Re: On “Armchair Epidemiology”
#8What's particularly impressive about this situation is that all the institutions on all sides got it wrong. Trump and his administration downplayed it, and Vox, Wapo, NYT et al downplayed it. You would think these two would act as a check on one another, but they completely failed to do so. The one time we needed them to disagree with each other, they agreed forcefully.
Re: On “Armchair Epidemiology”
#9this is borderline terrorism, imo. right from the into, "Dr. A..." which to a layman would reasonably interpet as meaning "M.D" rather than professor of computer science. the one thing i have noticed in all this is the utterly astonishing abandonment of science, reason, and rationality. that scares me much more than disease.
Re: On “Armchair Epidemiology”
#10Hindsight is always 20/20.