Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?
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Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?
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Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?
#2Nytimes article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/warm-weather-coron...
Some research papers from the past about SARS-CoronaVirus: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22312351
Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?
#3From the abstract, I gather this is a solid "maybe, maybe not".
Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?
#4It seems to me mathematically certain that it will.
A week ago there were 170,000 cases, now there are 337,000.
337000*(337/170)^14.5 is roughly 7 billion.
14.5 weeks from now is July 1st.
So either it diminishes or it's over by July, guaranteed.
Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?
#5It seems to me mathematically certain that it will. A week ago there were 170,000 cases, now there are 337,000. 337000*(337/170)^14.5 is roughly 7 billion. 14.5 weeks from now is July 1st. So either it diminishes or it's over by July, guaranteed.
Even if it diminishes, it won't be over—it'll come back in the fall, at which point we still won't have a vaccine.
The Spanish Flu was worst the next winter...
Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?
#6I'm not much aware of details, but it seems it's thriving here in Brazil.
Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?
#7It seems to me mathematically certain that it will. A week ago there were 170,000 cases, now there are 337,000. 337000*(337/170)^14.5 is roughly 7 billion. 14.5 weeks from now is July 1st. So either it diminishes or it's over by July, guaranteed.
Even if it diminishes, it won't be over —it'll come back in the fall, at which point we still won't have a vaccine. The Spanish Flu was worst the next winter...
Yeah, but that seems like a completely different situation. Wasn't the thing that happened then the dynamic where the sickest people were sent away from the front to the hospitals where they spread it, while the mild cases kept fighting?
Also, I said "or".
Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?
#8We in the southern hemisphere are heading into winter. Not ideal
Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?
#9I'm not much aware of details, but it seems it's thriving here in Brazil.
Likewise in Australia. I suspect this study hints that person to person transmission is not affected but that the virus has lower viability via surface spread in hot and humid climates.
Australia is much more densely packed in Urban areas than other countries like India and in spite of favorable weather conditions the person to person transmission is high. They haven't enforced the shelter in place yet
Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
Even if it diminishes, it won't be over —it'll come back in the fall, at which point we still won't have a vaccine. The Spanish Flu was worst the next winter...
Yeah, but that seems like a completely different situation. Wasn't the thing that happened then the dynamic where the sickest people were sent away from the front to the hospitals where they spread it, while the mild cases kept fighting? Also, I said "or".
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