Shall We Play a Market Timing Game? (2018)
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Shall We Play a Market Timing Game? (2018)
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Re: Shall We Play a Market Timing Game? (2018)
#2Interesting. Would be even better if it let you download data on returns at any point. For example, you might pause after Day 200, download data on the S&P 500 for Days 1-200, analyze the data, and then proceed accordingly.
Re: Shall We Play a Market Timing Game? (2018)
#3Cool but although I agree with the general message :
"The market returned 214.6% during this period or 21.05% annually."
This simple math statement is wrong and makes me wonder about this website accuracy.
edit : yes this was for a period of 9 years on the market which should be around 9% annual returns instead.
Re: Shall We Play a Market Timing Game? (2018)
#4Cool but although I agree with the general message : "The market returned 214.6% during this period or 21.05% annually." This simple math statement is wrong and makes me wonder about this website accuracy. edit : yes this was for a period of 9 years on the market which should be around 9% annual returns instead.
I don't see that text on the page. Was it a 6-year period? If so, the accuracy is basically perfect. (21.05% annual growth will return 214.6% after 5.9996 years.) Otherwise, weird.
> edit : yes this was for a period of 10 years on the market which should be around 8% annual returns instead.
How did you get a period of 10 years? It runs in 3-year increments.
Re: Shall We Play a Market Timing Game? (2018)
#5Cool but although I agree with the general message : "The market returned 214.6% during this period or 21.05% annually." This simple math statement is wrong and makes me wonder about this website accuracy. edit : yes this was for a period of 9 years on the market which should be around 9% annual returns instead.
That would be right for 6 years, assuming 214.6% return means that you finished with 3.146x the starting amount.
Re: Shall We Play a Market Timing Game? (2018)
#6Cool but although I agree with the general message : "The market returned 214.6% during this period or 21.05% annually." This simple math statement is wrong and makes me wonder about this website accuracy. edit : yes this was for a period of 9 years on the market which should be around 9% annual returns instead.
I don't see that text on the page. Was it a 6-year period? If so, the accuracy is basically perfect. (21.05% annual growth will return 214.6% after 5.9996 years.) Otherwise, weird. > edit : yes this was for a period of 10 years on the market which should be around 8% annual returns instead. How did you get a period of 10 years? It runs in 3-year increments.
You get some text in the Results box after you finish.
Re: Shall We Play a Market Timing Game? (2018)
#7Excellent game! I gave it a shot, failed miserably. Index investing is best for me.
Re: Shall We Play a Market Timing Game? (2018)
#8Generally, in markets that were part bearish (like the 80s), I made very good returns, between 10 % and 30 % above the index. As a very simple rule, after 2 days of a falling index, sell for exactly 1 day. This works mainly because there are enough consecutive 3 days of a falling index. However, if the market trend is overwhelmingly bullish, that does not work anymore, because there are not enough triplets of falling numbers. If it was possible to differentiate the two, I guess it would be possible to reliably beat the index. But of course that is the tricky part ... You cannot be better then the index in rising markets, but you could be better in falling markets.
Re: Shall We Play a Market Timing Game? (2018)
#9This just shows that so-called ‘technical’ analysis with no context is about as useful as trading based on horoscopes.
Add in some information like ‘a new pandemic threatens to shut the world economy for months and kill tens of millions of people’ and suddenly this changes.
Re: Shall We Play a Market Timing Game? (2018)
#10Is there also a version with the Nikkei 225?