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Evidence over Hysteria – Covid-19

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Re: Evidence over Hysteria – Covid-19

#3

Post by AuthorizedCust »

IAmEveryone wrote: post #2

This is bullshit. As but one example of the guy’s cluelessness: the curve of (new) infections over time is not a bell curve . The shape is roughly similar. But it has absolutely nothing to do with the normal distribution.

If that is your only criticism, you may be throwing away a whole article over a typo. The virus caseload in China is looking bell curve-ish.

I am not on board with everything in this article, though. I am unsure about his proposition on reopening schools, for example. But I'm not throwing it all away over that one part.

Re: Evidence over Hysteria – Covid-19

#4

Post by neonate »

IAmEveryone wrote: post #2

This is bullshit. As but one example of the guy’s cluelessness: the curve of (new) infections over time is not a bell curve . The shape is roughly similar. But it has absolutely nothing to do with the normal distribution.

Farr's Law says otherwise: https://www.google.com/search?q=%22farr%27s+law%22.

Re: Evidence over Hysteria – Covid-19

#5

Post by hcarvalhoalves »

Half of the article is about making numbers relative (active/total cases, cases/population, etc).

But death toll is counted in absolute numbers. No one will think 1M deaths is victory just because this is 1% of whatever. People are right to be hysterical, we have tough times ahead.

Re: Evidence over Hysteria – Covid-19

#6

Post by hanche »

Well, Farr's law is all about the general shape of an epidemic, plotted as number of infected people against time. It does not say anything about the location or height of the peak. The devil is in those details.

Re: Evidence over Hysteria – Covid-19

#7

Post by tjr225 »

Unrelated - is there a term for exhaustion of opinions?

I swear you could go into any HN comment thread related to this outbreak and it breaks down to; Person A saying X is going to happen and then Person B saying Y is going to happen and then Person C saying that No! Z is going to happen!

How did everyone get so opinionated about something so unpredictable and unprecedented? In any case I think we should all calm down regardless of how dangerous this situation is. Stay sane, everyone!

Re: Evidence over Hysteria – Covid-19

#9

Post by guscost »

hcarvalhoalves wrote: post #5

Half of the article is about making numbers relative (active/total cases, cases/population, etc). But death toll is counted in absolute numbers. No one will think 1M deaths is victory just because this is 1% of whatever. People are right to be hysterical, we have tough times ahead.

By that logic, with those numbers (and if 1M is the total globally), then we “lose” almost as badly to the seasonal flu, every year.

I’m not saying we shouldn’t care about deadly illnesses. But the world is a dangerous place, and we’ve been pretty bad about changing that, historically.

Also, if we ruin 5 million lives to save (some percent of) 1 million, is that worth it? How about ruining 50 million lives? We can save lives with drastic measures, but drastic measures will have bad consequences too, and it seems like nobody has any perspective on that.

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