Artificial Intelligence as the year 2000 approaches (1992)
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Re: Artificial Intelligence as the year 2000 approaches (1992)
#2For those who don't know, Maurice Wilkes invented subroutines and microcode.
Re: Artificial Intelligence as the year 2000 approaches (1992)
#3Vernor Vinge’s 1993 Technological Singularity is worth a read:
https://frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/book98/com.ch1/vinge.singularity...
“ Progress in hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades. Based on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater-than-human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years. (Charles Platt has pointed out that AI enthusiasts have been making claims like this for thirty years. Just so I'm not guilty of a relative-time ambiguity, let me be more specific: I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030.)”
Re: Artificial Intelligence as the year 2000 approaches (1992)
#4Vernor Vinge’s 1993 Technological Singularity is worth a read: https://frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/book98/com.ch1/vinge.singularity... “ Progress in hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades. Based on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater-than-human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years. (Charles Platt has pointed out that AI enthusiasts have been making claims like t…
We still have 10 more years to go then. But honestly I'd argue that we have already achieved at least some level of "greater than human" intelligence. Not general intelligence, mind you, but none the less.
Re: Artificial Intelligence as the year 2000 approaches (1992)
#5Off topic but I found the advertisement quite amusing all the way down in the article. 'ready to run software' :) we got exactly similar ads today from cloud providers like Amazon.
Re: Artificial Intelligence as the year 2000 approaches (1992)
#6Vernor Vinge’s 1993 Technological Singularity is worth a read: https://frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/book98/com.ch1/vinge.singularity... “ Progress in hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades. Based on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater-than-human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years. (Charles Platt has pointed out that AI enthusiasts have been making claims like t…
Well, he is not wrong yet :)
Re: Artificial Intelligence as the year 2000 approaches (1992)
#7Vernor Vinge’s 1993 Technological Singularity is worth a read: https://frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/book98/com.ch1/vinge.singularity... “ Progress in hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades. Based on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater-than-human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years. (Charles Platt has pointed out that AI enthusiasts have been making claims like t…
We still have 10 more years to go then. But honestly I'd argue that we have already achieved at least some level of "greater than human" intelligence. Not general intelligence, mind you, but none the less.
We already did by ‘96 when Deep Blue defeated Garry Kasparov. I’m sure there are other such examples even before that.
Re: Artificial Intelligence as the year 2000 approaches (1992)
#8Earlier quoted context omitted.
We still have 10 more years to go then. But honestly I'd argue that we have already achieved at least some level of "greater than human" intelligence. Not general intelligence, mind you, but none the less.
We already did by ‘96 when Deep Blue defeated Garry Kasparov. I’m sure there are other such examples even before that.
I’m not sure I would claim because a computer can be a human in a game that it has human level intelligence.
We probably need to come to some sort of agreement on how to define human level intelligence.
Re: Artificial Intelligence as the year 2000 approaches (1992)
#9Vernor Vinge’s 1993 Technological Singularity is worth a read: https://frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/book98/com.ch1/vinge.singularity... “ Progress in hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades. Based on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater-than-human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years. (Charles Platt has pointed out that AI enthusiasts have been making claims like t…
We still have 10 more years to go then. But honestly I'd argue that we have already achieved at least some level of "greater than human" intelligence. Not general intelligence, mind you, but none the less.
I agree that definition matters. I don't think we are really significantly closer to AGI than we were 20 years ago, but we've definitely demonstrated "greater chess intelligence. etc." in particular sorts of constrained domains.
Re: Artificial Intelligence as the year 2000 approaches (1992)
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
We already did by ‘96 when Deep Blue defeated Garry Kasparov. I’m sure there are other such examples even before that.
I’m not sure I would claim because a computer can be a human in a game that it has human level intelligence. We probably need to come to some sort of agreement on how to define human level intelligence.
On topic for the article: I don't think the Turing Test is a very good test at all. It's trivial by having the robot pretend to be stupid, a child, or not a native-speaker. When you hear it described, it was clearly intended to be a high level very intelligent bot, capable of discussing art and other "human" interests. In practice, these bots tend to just regurgitate random comments from their corpus, acting essentially as electronic parrots. Even so, they regularly fool much of the "judges" of these Turing Tests, who themselves probably couldn't have an intelligent conversation about art or poetry to begin with.
Humans are on the whole, terrible at detecting deception. The test should be left in history books. We need a real intelligence test.