Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up
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Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up
#2Mortgage debt will probably not be a problem in this cycle. People have this bias to remember most recent event, but it's rarely the same thing twice in a row: https://imgur.com/a/0dT7iHK
Corporate debt may be: https://imgur.com/a/b54hMSg
And frankly with the amount of outstanding US govt debt and underfunded pension & healthcare liabilities the USD may either get dethroned and devalued or sent into the negative interest rates purgatory like Japan is currently living in. Japan cannot possibly ever raise rates, at 2% rates 100% of their tax take will go towards paying the interest on their 250% national debt.
Add to that the history of Smoot-Hawley and the general outlook of the 1930s ...
Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up
#3Mortgage debt will probably not be a problem in this cycle. People have this bias to remember most recent event, but it's rarely the same thing twice in a row: https://imgur.com/a/0dT7iHK Corporate debt may be: https://imgur.com/a/b54hMSg And frankly with the amount of outstanding US govt debt and underfunded pension & healthcare liabilities the USD may either get dethroned and devalued or sent into the negative inte…
There definitely seems to be motive and opportunity on the housing side though right? Student debt among other things is high and not many 25-35yo people are buying houses but there's a lot of cash chasing returns. These mortgage backed securities are always seen as a reliable way to make a buck but nobody is questioning the market because "It'll never happen the same way twice".
Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up
#4Mortgage debt will probably not be a problem in this cycle. People have this bias to remember most recent event, but it's rarely the same thing twice in a row: https://imgur.com/a/0dT7iHK Corporate debt may be: https://imgur.com/a/b54hMSg And frankly with the amount of outstanding US govt debt and underfunded pension & healthcare liabilities the USD may either get dethroned and devalued or sent into the negative inte…
Queue the ZeroHedge style conspiracy theories and watch the sparks fly. That idea of a dethroned dollar is interesting, any thoughts at was is likely to take over? The Euro?
Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up
#5Mortgage debt will probably not be a problem in this cycle. People have this bias to remember most recent event, but it's rarely the same thing twice in a row: https://imgur.com/a/0dT7iHK Corporate debt may be: https://imgur.com/a/b54hMSg And frankly with the amount of outstanding US govt debt and underfunded pension & healthcare liabilities the USD may either get dethroned and devalued or sent into the negative inte…
So if the USD becomes weak, who out there could be in a position to become stronger? I don’t see any candidate. Euro growth is weak. CN bookkeeping’s suspect...
Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up
#6Mortgage debt will probably not be a problem in this cycle. People have this bias to remember most recent event, but it's rarely the same thing twice in a row: https://imgur.com/a/0dT7iHK Corporate debt may be: https://imgur.com/a/b54hMSg And frankly with the amount of outstanding US govt debt and underfunded pension & healthcare liabilities the USD may either get dethroned and devalued or sent into the negative inte…
So if the USD becomes weak, who out there could be in a position to become stronger? I don’t see any candidate. Euro growth is weak. CN bookkeeping’s suspect...
India, still a youngish population compared to China but with 1.4 billion people and still rapidly developing. Also helps they're strong in service industries, deliverable to the world.
Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up
#7> Fitch says such documentation may offer only partial verification, and these borrowers could have unstable income because, for example, they own small businesses.
This sounds more like "small business owners are underserved by QM products and more risk-tolerant investors are filling the void," much more so than the "it's 2007 all over again" tone of the headline and parts of the piece.
Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up
#8> Fitch says such documentation may offer only partial verification, and these borrowers could have unstable income because, for example, they own small businesses. This sounds more like "small business owners are underserved by QM products and more risk-tolerant investors are filling the void," much more so than the "it's 2007 all over again" tone of the headline and parts of the piece.
Correct. Non-QM volume isn't substantial enough to be systemic.
Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up
#9Mortgage debt will probably not be a problem in this cycle. People have this bias to remember most recent event, but it's rarely the same thing twice in a row: https://imgur.com/a/0dT7iHK Corporate debt may be: https://imgur.com/a/b54hMSg And frankly with the amount of outstanding US govt debt and underfunded pension & healthcare liabilities the USD may either get dethroned and devalued or sent into the negative inte…
One of these days the gold bugs will be right. This might be the one...
Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up
#10Mortgage debt will probably not be a problem in this cycle. People have this bias to remember most recent event, but it's rarely the same thing twice in a row: https://imgur.com/a/0dT7iHK Corporate debt may be: https://imgur.com/a/b54hMSg And frankly with the amount of outstanding US govt debt and underfunded pension & healthcare liabilities the USD may either get dethroned and devalued or sent into the negative inte…
One of these days the gold bugs will be right. This might be the one...
How exactly?