Recession Already Grips Corners of U.S., Menacing Trump’s 2020 Bid
1–10 of 23 posts
Re: Recession Already Grips Corners of U.S., Menacing Trump’s 2020 Bid
#2I want nothing more than for Trump to get unseated, but it amazes me how people pin the entirety of the economy's ebbs and flows on whoever was most recently president.
Edit: the sitting president of course has influence on the big picture, but there are many other factors at play, some of which are inevitable
Re: Recession Already Grips Corners of U.S., Menacing Trump’s 2020 Bid
#3I want nothing more than for Trump to get unseated, but it amazes me how people pin the entirety of the economy's ebbs and flows on whoever was most recently president. Edit: the sitting president of course has influence on the big picture, but there are many other factors at play, some of which are inevitable
In this case some parts of the economy are failing (or in 'recession') directly due to the president's actions regarding the trade war. Whether these are actually indicative of a macro economic change is debatable I'd say, but soy profits have fallen, for example, and that industry's failure is a direct result of the tariffs.
Re: Recession Already Grips Corners of U.S., Menacing Trump’s 2020 Bid
#4The infographic shows 4 of Trump's swing states with job gains vs. 3 with job losses. My US geography isn't perfect, but it looks like losses vs. gains across states are pretty equal.
I read the whole article, they don't do a great job backing up their thesis, instead using anecdotes.
> His advisers argue that the blame for any slowdown rests with a Federal Reserve that last year hiked interest rates too quickly and a strong dollar that makes U.S. exports less competitive.
They're not wrong. Interest rate hikes reduce the amount of debt companies (or farmers) can take on to pay for equipment and rates that are too high are a drag on the economy. Low rates encourage growth.
Re: Recession Already Grips Corners of U.S., Menacing Trump’s 2020 Bid
#5I want nothing more than for Trump to get unseated, but it amazes me how people pin the entirety of the economy's ebbs and flows on whoever was most recently president. Edit: the sitting president of course has influence on the big picture, but there are many other factors at play, some of which are inevitable
while i’m on the side of “we have an economic system that crashes all by itself” i would have say though that certain policies of presidents (and the congress) can worsen them, such as repealing glass-stegal (2008 housing crisis) or other financial deregulation (1980s savings and loan crisis)
lots of fun reading:
Re: Recession Already Grips Corners of U.S., Menacing Trump’s 2020 Bid
#6I want nothing more than for Trump to get unseated, but it amazes me how people pin the entirety of the economy's ebbs and flows on whoever was most recently president. Edit: the sitting president of course has influence on the big picture, but there are many other factors at play, some of which are inevitable
The president, any president, does have the power to affect all corners of the economy. The tax overhaul is a good example, that affected everyone to some extent. I do not think anyone is saying the entirety of the economy is based on his policy but there is no question he can move the needle.
Re: Recession Already Grips Corners of U.S., Menacing Trump’s 2020 Bid
#7"job" measurement isn't an adequate metric as some jobs are high earners and some jobs pay so little that you need more than one just to keep your head above water. So people may be happier or unhappier than suggested by this metric.
In other words I don't think the article really addresses its own thesis.
Re: Recession Already Grips Corners of U.S., Menacing Trump’s 2020 Bid
#8I want nothing more than for Trump to get unseated, but it amazes me how people pin the entirety of the economy's ebbs and flows on whoever was most recently president. Edit: the sitting president of course has influence on the big picture, but there are many other factors at play, some of which are inevitable
Anecdote: I have seen my shares of stock dip by up to 5% because of his tweets.
Re: Recession Already Grips Corners of U.S., Menacing Trump’s 2020 Bid
#9"job" measurement isn't an adequate metric as some jobs are high earners and some jobs pay so little that you need more than one just to keep your head above water. So people may be happier or unhappier than suggested by this metric. In other words I don't think the article really addresses its own thesis.
Yup. Also doesn't measure the fact that some people have multiple jobs, when wages go up they often ditch one. Not to mention things like labour participation rate, underemployment, etc...
Re: Recession Already Grips Corners of U.S., Menacing Trump’s 2020 Bid
#10I want nothing more than for Trump to get unseated, but it amazes me how people pin the entirety of the economy's ebbs and flows on whoever was most recently president. Edit: the sitting president of course has influence on the big picture, but there are many other factors at play, some of which are inevitable
Anecdote: I have seen my shares of stock dip by up to 5% because of his tweets.
Is that after they went up because the US markets have been pretty decent the last few years...