The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)
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Re: The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)
#2> Chances are good that if you’re in the market for a smartphone, you fall into one of two very clear cut categories. Either: a. you’ve decided that your new phone is a very important item in your life, so you’re going to buy the nicest phone available at whatever price. (Usually this means an iPhone, although some flagship Android phones qualify for this category.) Or, b. you’ve decided that just about every phone out there is ‘good enough’ and is more than adequate for your needs, so you’ll go with whatever one costs $0 with your existing wireless contract.
He doesn't provide any figure, he just says things and consider them to be true.
Re: The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)
#3His paragraph about jobs is spot on. I've seen this in my own workplace on a team that is 75% contractors and 25% full time employees. Contractors are seen as completely replaceable, and if one leaves they'll be replaced with another one after a quick round of interviews. However, if a full time employee leaves, the process to replace them seems to take much longer as it appears that those doing the hiring are looking for The Superstar. I'm not sure how to fix this, or if it's even possible to fix.
Re: The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)
#4"-Normal distributions come from multifactorial situations, where many variables matter.
-In a world governed by scarcity, our decisions and preferences tend to be multifactorial in nature.
-In a world governed by abundance, on the other hand, our decisions are no longer multifactorial. They tend to be dominated by one factor above all others: either X matters to you, or it doesn’t."
I'm more curious as to _why_ our decisions become dominated by one factor as we approach abundance. It almost seems counter-intuitive: in a world of abundance, wouldn't there be more things we could afford to care about? In a world of scarcity, wouldn't your decision be based mostly by just "does it do what I want it to do"?
Maybe we're just lazy. Maybe it's the other way around: in a world of abundance, we can _afford_ to be _lazy_ and not care about nearly as much, and instead focus on singular values.
In either case, I'm not convinced that decision distribution is a function of scarcity/abundance, but rather some other factor, of which scarcity/abundance contributes to.
Re: The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)
#5> Chances are good that if you’re in the market for a smartphone, you fall into one of two very clear cut categories. Either: a. you’ve decided that your new phone is a very important item in your life, so you’re going to buy the nicest phone available at whatever price. (Usually this means an iPhone, although some flagship Android phones qualify for this category.) Or, b. you’ve decided that just about every phone o…
I don't think it is true. Just a cursory google search suggests that the market, at least globally, is a lot flatter and is likely flattening. Not everyone has an iPhone or Samsung. [0]
Similarly, those large cities he lists (LA, New York and San Fran) have relatively low population growth, at 0.67%, 0.25% and 1% respectively [1]. Large cities like Phoenix, and Austin have around 2% growth.
This makes more sense to me. As these cities become crowded and expensive, people will naturally look for a better deal.
These types of articles are just lazy. The author doesn't even seem to bother doing basic research.
[0] http://zindagi.online/2018/12/03/gartner-global-smartphone-s...
Re: The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)
#6"-Normal distributions come from multifactorial situations, where many variables matter. -In a world governed by scarcity, our decisions and preferences tend to be multifactorial in nature. -In a world governed by abundance, on the other hand, our decisions are no longer multifactorial. They tend to be dominated by one factor above all others: either X matters to you, or it doesn’t." I'm more curious as to _why_ our…
In a world of scarcity, wouldn't your decision be based mostly by just "does it do what I want it to do"?
Yes but also "can I afford it?", "is it available?", "will it be shipped on time and to my address", etc. When you reach real abundance and everything is at your fingertips, the only factor that matters is whether you want it.
Re: The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)
#7> Chances are good that if you’re in the market for a smartphone, you fall into one of two very clear cut categories. Either: a. you’ve decided that your new phone is a very important item in your life, so you’re going to buy the nicest phone available at whatever price. (Usually this means an iPhone, although some flagship Android phones qualify for this category.) Or, b. you’ve decided that just about every phone o…
Not to mention that a person who’s cost conscious about their phone won’t have a contract that included “free” upgrades anyway.
Re: The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)
#8I would predict things tend toward the bi distribution the article talks about during market lulls and that competition rather than abundance creates the gaussian distribution. In the example of smartphones given, there hasn't been the same rapid progress as there was between each generation even a few years ago. So most middle of the road smartphones are all fairly comparable. That said, if someone wanted to take the energy and time to find the best available of this mid tier I'm sure they could, it's just the majority seeking the middle of the road find the average of this tier good enough. If any revolutionary comes out again soon I would guess there would be an immediate gaussian distribution again
Re: The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)
#9His paragraph about jobs is spot on. I've seen this in my own workplace on a team that is 75% contractors and 25% full time employees. Contractors are seen as completely replaceable, and if one leaves they'll be replaced with another one after a quick round of interviews. However, if a full time employee leaves, the process to replace them seems to take much longer as it appears that those doing the hiring are lookin…
I think people could argue that even years ago many workplaces have been sort of bifurcated between people that would be "first to fire" and those that were "integral", but these days it appears that its become more institutionalized by the use of the contractor and full time employee classes -- I would say generally not a great trend.. seems better to at least allow the illusion to people that are initially considered as less important to have a chance to become more important within the company..
Re: The Access Economy: Why the Normal Distribution Is Vanishing (2015)
#10> Chances are good that if you’re in the market for a smartphone, you fall into one of two very clear cut categories. Either: a. you’ve decided that your new phone is a very important item in your life, so you’re going to buy the nicest phone available at whatever price. (Usually this means an iPhone, although some flagship Android phones qualify for this category.) Or, b. you’ve decided that just about every phone o…
I don't think it is true. Just a cursory google search suggests that the market, at least globally, is a lot flatter and is likely flattening. Not everyone has an iPhone or Samsung. [0] Similarly, those large cities he lists (LA, New York and San Fran) have relatively low population growth, at 0.67%, 0.25% and 1% respectively [1]. Large cities like Phoenix, and Austin have around 2% growth. This makes more sense to m…
Large cities seem to also depress fertility.