Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm
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Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm
1–10 of 141 posts
Re: Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm
#2I don't like how the subtitle reads "American tariffs, a Chinese slowdown..." but the article text says "possible US tariffs".
It seems misleading to lead with 'tariffs' when they are only 'possible tariffs'.
Makes it seem click-baity.
Re: Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm
#3Perfect storms aside, I think Volkswagen will be the biggest producer of EVs within 3 years. They're targeting the high end with the Porsche Taycan, the Porsche Macan EV, and the future Audi e-tron GT which will be based on the Taycan's platform:
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/porsche-double-taycan-ev-...
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/porsche-macan-electric-on...
Volkswagen's MEB platform targets mid-range vehicles and will be used for models across the VW, Audi, Skoda, and SEAT brands:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform
https://jalopnik.com/the-fascinating-engineering-behind-vws-...
And Volkswagen is looking to license the MEB platform to other manufacturers:
https://jalopnik.com/volkswagen-wants-other-automakers-to-us...
Ford will probably license the MEB platform for their EVs.
Re: Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm
#4I don't like how the subtitle reads "American tariffs, a Chinese slowdown..." but the article text says "possible US tariffs". It seems misleading to lead with 'tariffs' when they are only 'possible tariffs'. Makes it seem click-baity.
1. Auto industry is so vested in China market for their growth, because of US - China trade war that growth opportunity is more or less gone for at least now
2. US is a mature but substantial auto market, with possible tariffs (highly likely since EU and US are not even seriously talking trade) will pull the rug from the under.
3. Debt in developing markets is high, there are only handful of places where there can be some growth but do not have size and heft of US or China markets
Re: Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm
#5I don't like how the subtitle reads "American tariffs, a Chinese slowdown..." but the article text says "possible US tariffs". It seems misleading to lead with 'tariffs' when they are only 'possible tariffs'. Makes it seem click-baity.
I agree, and further to your point America has made it clear they only intend to apply tariffs that mirror what is applied to America.
Re: Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm
#6Perfect storms aside, I think Volkswagen will be the biggest producer of EVs within 3 years. They're targeting the high end with the Porsche Taycan, the Porsche Macan EV, and the future Audi e-tron GT which will be based on the Taycan's platform: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/porsche-double-taycan-ev-... https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/porsche-macan-electric-on... Volkswagen's MEB platform targets mid-range v…
While I respect VW's ability to produce I think the limiting factor will be battery production. They've made some aggressive moves into it but I wonder if they can keep it going.
Re: Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm
#7Perfect storms aside, I think Volkswagen will be the biggest producer of EVs within 3 years. They're targeting the high end with the Porsche Taycan, the Porsche Macan EV, and the future Audi e-tron GT which will be based on the Taycan's platform: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/porsche-double-taycan-ev-... https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/porsche-macan-electric-on... Volkswagen's MEB platform targets mid-range v…
While I respect VW's ability to produce I think the limiting factor will be battery production. They've made some aggressive moves into it but I wonder if they can keep it going.
Especially if LG manages to block VW's future battery plans:
https://electrek.co/2019/02/21/lg-vw-battery-cell-supply-ev-...
Re: Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm
#8As a German, I am quite happy about this. What you must know is that German organisations are extremely hierarchical, with little information flowing from frontline management to to top management. Hence, change only happens top down and only if the top managers in their ivory towers deem it necessary. But it’s incredibly important that our automakers reinvent themselves. And here we have the necessary angst to drive this long-needed transformation of our automotive sector.
Re: Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
While I respect VW's ability to produce I think the limiting factor will be battery production. They've made some aggressive moves into it but I wonder if they can keep it going.
Especially if LG manages to block VW's future battery plans: https://electrek.co/2019/02/21/lg-vw-battery-cell-supply-ev-...
It was shocking that LG trying to block them from building their own battery supply became public. I think if they don't get serious about battery production in the next couple of years, it will take a decade to catch up. tesla's lead and ability to make their own batteries with panasonic is a massive advantage. i went the auto companies to make their own batteries too. there will be a shortage of battery productions for 10+ years. And this was all predicted, i can't believe the legacy auto dealers didn't do a better job of investing in it just a little bit.
Re: Germany's car industry faces a perfect storm
#10As a German, I am quite happy about this. What you must know is that German organisations are extremely hierarchical, with little information flowing from frontline management to to top management. Hence, change only happens top down and only if the top managers in their ivory towers deem it necessary. But it’s incredibly important that our automakers reinvent themselves. And here we have the necessary angst to drive…
Not all German organizations are like that. The car industry is especially dysfunctional. I've been watching them fail at software for years now.
The problem, as far as I can tell, is as follows: top management is able and motivated to increase the size of the money bag. Developers just want to do a good job for a good salary. Middle management can't change the size of the money bag too much, so it just wants to grab as much as possible for itself. How does a middle manager expand their empire? Certainly not by leading a small, effective organization. The head count needs to grow, so the middle manager wants ineffective developers. It only works because no one above knows enough about software to fairly evaluate the work of these petty empire-builders.
One time I wanted to gauge how far the car industry has come from realizing the problem to implementing a solution, so I typed something like "automotive software crisis" into Google. Among the first few hits a presentation of a German CS professor stating that there is a crisis... and that the solution is model-driven development. It's the exact shit that they are already doing that is not working.
If good software is produced in Germany, it's despite subpar academic CS and dysfunctional large companies. Much of Germany's economy is medium-sized companies - fortunately, I guess.
I do expect the German car industry to fix its software but only when it's really suffering financially. Car industry outsiders will be heavily involved in the solution.