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Google's search business to be bigger than Windows

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Re: Google's search business to be bigger than Windows

#3

Just because something is bigger than Windows doesn't mean MS should compete. The automotive industry is probably bigger than Windows. Maybe they should start making cars?

The difference is that the automative industry won't undermine Microsofts businessmodel , but Google might.

If they look a few years down the line they should definitely compete against Google.

Re: Google's search business to be bigger than Windows

#5
Microsoft doesn't want to make the same mistake IBM did.

IBM enjoyed 70% market share in the enterprise for 30 years. They thought it would last forever. Until the PC came along. But they didn't take it seriously and look what happened.

Microsoft knows as well as anyone that the days of thick clients and proprietary software are numbered. So they'll milk that cow as long as they can.

No one knows for sure what's going to happen, but with thick pipes, thin clients, open source software, and the upheaval of the "enterprise", I'd be planting new seeds, too.

Re: Google's search business to be bigger than Windows

#6
post #5

Microsoft doesn't want to make the same mistake IBM did. IBM enjoyed 70% market share in the enterprise for 30 years. They thought it would last forever. Until the PC came along. But they didn't take it seriously and look what happened. Microsoft knows as well as anyone that the days of thick clients and proprietary software are numbered. So they'll milk that cow as long as they can. No one knows for sure what's goin…

IBM is a sleeper company, which is what microsoft is becoming, which is where the majority of the wealth in this nation is at. I have read the old articles from the 80's and 90's that said that Microsoft would supplant IBM. It is now 2008, and Microsoft generates about US$12B a quarter where IBM is doing right around US$24B a quarter. In other words we are still waiting. IBM made a decision to GIVE microsoft a market. The decision was all the more easy as Mrs. Gates, mom to Bill, was EDIT:(a high level executive at IBM) - on the same boards as the CEO and other board members of IBM - at the time.

My point in all this is that companies, the large ones, the ones that write the US$250M per annum IT checks, buy what IBM tells them to buy. IBM told them to buy Microsoft for a while, because writing that software themselves was a pain. Now IBM will look around for a cloud vendor to be their go to guy for cloud deployments. It is too early to say what this relationship will look like, but it is a certainty that whoever gets the IBM guys out pushing them, will be the enterprise monopoly in the future.

This is a SLIGHT oversimplification of the enterprise purchasing process for large organizations, but it gets at the fundamentals. And in any case, the negation is likely and sufficient to cause GOOG and MSFT trouble. That is, if IBM says NOT to buy Google or Microsoft cloud services, then they are non starters.

If you want to bet on a company that will ride the next enterprise upgrade wave, put your money on IBM. This is the only constant in the global enterprise IT market.

It is way to difficult to figure out whether Google can come up with a product that any large enterprise would want to use. That is, can they really innovate? I think open minded analysts agree that the jury is still out on that one. Equally vexing is the question of whether Microsoft can get their heads out of their butts long enough to create a product that conforms to the next computing paradigm? The only certainty is that whatever happens IBM will be supporting it, and THAT is where the money is. All US$100B a year worth!

And that is only likely to grow!

Re: Google's search business to be bigger than Windows

#7
post #3

Just because something is bigger than Windows doesn't mean MS should compete. The automotive industry is probably bigger than Windows. Maybe they should start making cars?

The difference is that the automative industry won't undermine Microsofts businessmodel , but Google might. If they look a few years down the line they should definitely compete against Google.

That too seems to be mere speculation with no evidence or even sound reasoning supporting it. Nobody has yet presented a compelling picture of how search will stop MS from selling copies of Windows. It's no more accurate to say Google could compete in the OS space than it is to say MS could in search.

And don't even get me started on Office.

Re: Google's search business to be bigger than Windows

#8

Just because something is bigger than Windows doesn't mean MS should compete. The automotive industry is probably bigger than Windows. Maybe they should start making cars?

If Microsoft made cars...

1. For no reason whatsoever your car would crash twice a day.

2. Every time they repainted the lines on the road you would have to buy a new car.

... http://www.netscrap.com/netscrap_detail.cfm?scrap_id=689

Re: Google's search business to be bigger than Windows

#9
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference is that the automative industry won't undermine Microsofts businessmodel , but Google might. If they look a few years down the line they should definitely compete against Google.

That too seems to be mere speculation with no evidence or even sound reasoning supporting it. Nobody has yet presented a compelling picture of how search will stop MS from selling copies of Windows. It's no more accurate to say Google could compete in the OS space than it is to say MS could in search. And don't even get me started on Office.

I think the reasoning is pretty sound.

Microsoft know that in the long term the role of the operating system might dwindle since a lot of the stuff people do is moving onto the web. Salesforce, zoho and google apps are examples of this. This is extremely threatening to them since their main competitive adantage lies in their desktop dominance. So they obviously want to dominate whatever they think might be the next big thing, and one of these happens to be search. And the 500 pound gorilla in that market happens to be Google. And the fact that Google is also trying their hand at an online suite that might replace offfice one day makes them an even bigger threat.

Note that I'm not saying that the desktop is obsolete, or that the one that controls search controls the world. I'm merely saying that Microsoft is looking at current trends which point towards a lot of data and functionality moving to the web, and are hedging their bets accordingly. As they should.

Re: Google's search business to be bigger than Windows

#10
Google's search business might be bigger than Windows, but let's not forget that the way we access the internet could change as well. A new protocol for accessing/finding information (no webservers anymore) could put google out of business and they would have to start at 0 as others would also.
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