The trouble with writing a pop-econ book

The trouble with writing a pop-econ book
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The thing about econ is it's closely connected to political philosophy, and politics causes all sorts of partisan issues. Witness the furore over Piketty's work over recent years.

So why do I say it's necessary and evil?

Well it's necessary because it's often the only way for someone outside of academia to get an overview of a topic. Without these kinds of work we'd be lost rifling through various journal papers, not knowing which ones are considered important and which ones not.

It's evil because that editorial power is seductive. To sell books, that author needs to make a forceful point. To do that, you can't just leave the evidence at "inconclusive", even though that might be sensible. Why write a book at all if it says "we don't know"? So we get selection bias in what books are written.

A friend of mine writes pop-econ books, and from a very libertarian point of view. Something about it seems like a just-so story. The inherent noisiness of economic evidence is lost, all the graphs are cherry picked to support his view. And yet you'd have to dig quite a lot to find specific things to complain about.

I studied economics myself, and on a lot of things I thought the stack of papers had good arguments one way and the other. My tutor, a famous Marxist, was also quite good at giving the free market side of evidence, so it's not like he was all one-sided.

My main concern is that people who haven't had a bit of exposure to economics at university think that it's like picking up A Brief History of Time. Basically true, but for laymen (wonder what a real physicist would think, heh). In actuality a lot of it is opinion, disguised as science. (In fact I tend to view a lot of economics like that; Opinions well defended by some sort of evidence.)

Perhaps your friend could do a really popular debunking book called 'Stop trying to manage noise' and make a fortune? I'm actually a bit serious, so many people do not understand the idea of sampling error and associated noise in data.

Related to this, someone commented on the /r/AskHistorians discussions linked by the article [1]:

> What I like about history is that it teaches you humility. Even if you spend years researching a small topic, there will be so much that you don't and never will know. Political science is the opposite with lots of helicopter opinioning. New crisis in Mali? Here I come with my insta-factoids and world explanations

The fact is that around these parts of the world (Eastern Europe - The Balkans) people have started wars and a lot more people have died as a result of those wars, only because one hundred years ago some historian just couldn’t say “we just don’t know” after dedicating all of his career to a specific topic (like “who was the first one between populations A, B and C to have occupied this land?”). In the meantime historians have smarten up a little, it’s not all black and white, there are a lot of “maybes”, of “we need more data to answer that question” or even “this question will probably never be answered in a satisfactory matter”.

Meanwhile, I’m pretty sure people are dying at this very moment because, like you said, some political scientist or economist just couldn’t say “we don’t know” or even “it’s complicated”.

[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/16zhk7/as_a_...