Guesstimate – A Spreadsheet for things that aren't certain • Hacker News Board

Guesstimate – A Spreadsheet for things that aren't certain

#1

Post by 666_howitzer » Sat, Dec 29, 2018, 7:56 PM UTC

Guesstimate – A Spreadsheet for things that aren't certain
getguesstimate.com

Re: Guesstimate – A Spreadsheet for things that aren't certain

#2

Post by crb002 » Sat, Dec 29, 2018, 9:21 PM UTC

I proposed writing something like this while working for DuPont's Encirca platform. Years later still little to no adoption in the farm IT field of these models.

Re: Guesstimate – A Spreadsheet for things that aren't certain

#3

Post by samstave » Sat, Dec 29, 2018, 9:36 PM UTC

This looks fantastic.

I love that it was a no BS signup and start using. Super clean and easy. It would be great to be able to show data on GIS as well - effectively showing the outcomes geographic representations. Ill see if the data I was looking to work with today will work with this tool meaningfully.

Re: Guesstimate – A Spreadsheet for things that aren't certain

#4

Post by struct » Sat, Dec 29, 2018, 9:36 PM UTC

Great tool! (I’m a regular user :D)

Re: Guesstimate – A Spreadsheet for things that aren't certain

#5

Post by iamwil » Sat, Dec 29, 2018, 9:38 PM UTC

I saw this a couple of years ago, when it was just a project. Now that there's a price, how did you guys decide on a price? How did you find your first customers? For a broadly applicable tool, how did you know where to start looking?

Re: Guesstimate – A Spreadsheet for things that aren't certain

#6

Post by samstave » Sat, Dec 29, 2018, 9:42 PM UTC

struct wrote: post #4

Great tool! (I’m a regular user :D)

Can you give some examples on what you have built with it?

Re: Guesstimate – A Spreadsheet for things that aren't certain

#7

Post by dang » Sat, Dec 29, 2018, 9:49 PM UTC

From 2015: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10816563

Re: Guesstimate – A Spreadsheet for things that aren't certain

#8

Post by carlob » Sat, Dec 29, 2018, 10:00 PM UTC

Maybe it's just the short video and the FAQ, but I found it particularly difficult to find information about the distributions involved and how to choose that.

I imagine there a bunch of cases where the defaults would not work like you're trying to do error propagation (all normal distributions) or you're trying to compute interval arithmetic.

Is it the case that if you input a range which span multiple orders of magnitude then you get lognormal rather than normal?

I might not be exactly the target audience, but I would appreciate a more in-depth of the math and heuristics involved

EDIT: I found this on their blog

https://medium.com/guesstimate-blog/lognormal-normal-833bf41...

Re: Guesstimate – A Spreadsheet for things that aren't certain

#9

Post by Bootvis » Sat, Dec 29, 2018, 10:03 PM UTC

Is this project still active? The activity on GitHub seems low.

Re: Guesstimate – A Spreadsheet for things that aren't certain

#10

Post by Invictus0 » Sat, Dec 29, 2018, 11:32 PM UTC

You should add a gaussian quadrature method as well.