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China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

nytimes.com

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Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#3
>Proponents of the plan say letting Washington impose more tariffs than Beijing would actually hurt the United States more because tariffs are ultimately paid by consumers and businesses in the countries that levy them.

Well, this is actually the fundamental problem, isn't it? There's no way actual trade evens out, so tariffs are the only real outcome here. Even if we "win", it's not actually winning.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#4
Some hard-liners want a more aggressive stance. Lou Jiwei, who retired as finance minister in 2016 but is still the head of the country’s social security fund, suggested on Sunday that China could deliberately disrupt American companies’ supply chains by halting the export of crucial components mostly made in China. But Chinese trade experts dismiss that idea as impractical and not the government’s position.

If anything would play into the administration's hands, it would be that move. By taking themselves offline, the Chinese would be ceding market share to upstart competitors and encouraging further reshoring of mission-critical supply chain components.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#5
post #3

>Proponents of the plan say letting Washington impose more tariffs than Beijing would actually hurt the United States more because tariffs are ultimately paid by consumers and businesses in the countries that levy them. Well, this is actually the fundamental problem, isn't it? There's no way actual trade evens out, so tariffs are the only real outcome here. Even if we "win", it's not actually winning.

The "winning" scenario for the United States is that China agrees to change its IP policies. IP is America's most valuable product, and the Chinese have been stealing it with 0 consequences for decades. A win on this front would see an end (or at least decrease) in cyberattacks and more US friendly IP laws.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#6
post #3

>Proponents of the plan say letting Washington impose more tariffs than Beijing would actually hurt the United States more because tariffs are ultimately paid by consumers and businesses in the countries that levy them. Well, this is actually the fundamental problem, isn't it? There's no way actual trade evens out, so tariffs are the only real outcome here. Even if we "win", it's not actually winning.

Not really. That would be true if the tariffs were on all imported goods, from all locations. In this case, it just encourages businesses to look at other cheap markets (Vietnam, Mexico, Bangladesh, etc.), hence China's anxiety.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#8
post #3

>Proponents of the plan say letting Washington impose more tariffs than Beijing would actually hurt the United States more because tariffs are ultimately paid by consumers and businesses in the countries that levy them. Well, this is actually the fundamental problem, isn't it? There's no way actual trade evens out, so tariffs are the only real outcome here. Even if we "win", it's not actually winning.

The "winning" scenario for the United States is that China agrees to change its IP policies. IP is America's most valuable product, and the Chinese have been stealing it with 0 consequences for decades. A win on this front would see an end (or at least decrease) in cyberattacks and more US friendly IP laws.

And the "losing" scenario is a WTO ruling like Antigua and Barbuda where China is directly permitted to ignore US copyrights and patents from trade disputes.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#9

Are tariffs just straight up revenue for the US government, like income taxes?

Yes, but it is relatively small amount of revenue. Even with the new 10% tariffs on extra $200B, China tariffs in total will be less than 3% of federal government revenue.
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