Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#1

Post by lackingcaffeine » Thu, Jul 12, 2018, 12:43 PM UTC

Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?
bloomberg.com

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#2

Post by stephengillie » Thu, Jul 12, 2018, 2:12 PM UTC

Given current fuel efficiency requirements, a midsize sedan is hell for every automaker.

Ford largely abandoned the sedan market. Every other automaker has been forced to either hybridize or reduce car size. SUVs and trucks are effectively the new sedan, as they have different efficiency requirements, so can support the mobile energy requirements of an early 21st century family. Most of the plug-in hybrids and all-electric cars - the Bolt/Volt, i3, etc - are part of limited runs that are likely sold at a loss to offset the company's more gas-hungry vehicles.

On the other side, cheap cars leave slim margins. In Lee Iacocca's autobiography, he relates Henry Ford Jr telling him that they'd never make money on small cars, in the 1970s gas crisis.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#3

Post by baybal2 » Thu, Jul 12, 2018, 2:18 PM UTC

I'm surprised. Chinese EV makers have aced the "nothing special" EV sedan niche under $30k and are popping them out non-stop.

I guess, a part of "Apple disease" of around mid-20xx. Teslas are so distinct from mainline cars under the bonnet, that they can't source much components on open market, big part of manufacturing equipment have to be custom made, and they can't outsource anything.

Chinese makers on other hands just gut existing economy sedans, and put batteries in place of motor, and PMDCs on rear axle, without any extra magic involved.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#4

Post by dsfyu404ed » Thu, Jul 12, 2018, 2:21 PM UTC

baybal2 wrote: post #3

I'm surprised. Chinese EV makers have aced the "nothing special" EV sedan niche under $30k and are popping them out non-stop. I guess, a part of "Apple disease" of around mid-20xx. Teslas are so distinct from mainline cars under the bonnet, that they can't source much components on open market, big part of manufacturing equipment have to be custom made, and they can't outsource anything. Chinese makers on other hands…

I'm no Tesla fanboy but I'd wager that those 30k sedans don't include the cost of complying with US and European regulation and customer expectations.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#5

Post by d0lph » Thu, Jul 12, 2018, 2:25 PM UTC

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I feel like the fact they sell cars makes Tesla a real car company already.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#6

Post by jghjg » Thu, Jul 12, 2018, 2:28 PM UTC

d0lph wrote: post #5

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I feel like the fact they sell cars makes Tesla a real car company already.

who really buy teslas but soyboys?

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#7

Post by michaelt » Thu, Jul 12, 2018, 2:29 PM UTC

  Tesla is running out of cash at a time when competition
  is heating up—Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, and others plan
  to release dozens of electric car models.

I wish competition would heat up.

All I want is an all-electric EV with a 200+ mile range. You know what my options are? [1] A Tesla Model S or X, a Bolt EV/Ampera-e which isn't sold in my country [2], or a Tesla Model 3 which is barely shipping at all.

I look forward to the day when more than one company sells an EV with a respectable range.

[1] https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:BEV_EPA_range_compar... [2] https://fleetworld.co.uk/new-ampera-e-wont-make-uk-confirms-...

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#8

Post by SurrealSoul » Thu, Jul 12, 2018, 2:29 PM UTC

d0lph wrote: post #5

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I feel like the fact they sell cars makes Tesla a real car company already.

But if they sell more cars can we still make these articles?

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#9

Post by adventured » Thu, Jul 12, 2018, 2:29 PM UTC

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #4

baybal2 wrote: post #3

I'm surprised. Chinese EV makers have aced the "nothing special" EV sedan niche under $30k and are popping them out non-stop. I guess, a part of "Apple disease" of around mid-20xx. Teslas are so distinct from mainline cars under the bonnet, that they can't source much components on open market, big part of manufacturing equipment have to be custom made, and they can't outsource anything. Chinese makers on other hands…

I'm no Tesla fanboy but I'd wager that those 30k sedans don't include the cost of complying with US and European regulation and customer expectations.

You're stretching the premise too far.

It's pretty clear the big auto makers will eventually be able to mass produce cheap EVs. There's nothing particularly special about them, and battery prices will continue to fall for some time yet.

A 2018 Toyota Camry in the US has a base price of $23,645.

Others: Toyota Carolla $18,700; Nissan Altima $23,260; Nissan Sentra $16,990; Honda Accord $23,570; Honda Civic $18,940; Ford Fusion $22,215; Chevy Cruze $16,975; Chevy Malibu $21,680; Chevy Impala $27,895; Hyundai Elantra $14,450; Hyundai Sonata $18,550.

If we can build all of those at such low prices, EVs will commonly get down there globally given 15-20 years.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#10

Post by baggachipz » Thu, Jul 12, 2018, 2:32 PM UTC

michaelt wrote: post #7

Tesla is running out of cash at a time when competition is heating up—Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, and others plan to release dozens of electric car models. I wish competition would heat up. All I want is an all-electric EV with a 200+ mile range. You know what my options are? [1] A Tesla Model S or X, a Bolt EV/Ampera-e which isn't sold in my country [2], or a Tesla Model 3 which is barely shipping at all. I look forwa…

> a Tesla Model 3 which is barely shipping at all.

Sorry, but no. One can be had in just a couple months at this point, and that lead time will dwindle quickly now that they've really ramped production.