The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent
bloomberg.com
The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent
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Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent
#2“The existing line isn’t functional, it can’t build cars as planned and there isn’t room to get people into work stations to replace the non-functioning robots,” Warburton said in an email. “So here we have it—build cars manually in the parking lot.”
This theory makes sense to me. Changing a over-automated line to one that is safe to use by humans must be way more expensive and time consuming then just rebuilding the whole thing in the parking lot. I imagine this line will have a pretty hefty defect rate though.
Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent
#3The Tesla story has effectively become a manufacturing story.
Can they meet production targets?
Can they maintain product quality while they scale?
Will they run out of money before they solve the CapEx intensive, low margin problem of automobile manufacturing!!!?
Despite the scrapiness of the "build a gigantic tent" story it's a bizarre risk.
Musk's desire for full vertical integration obviously mirror's that of Steve Jobs - who ALWAYS claimed a core apple advantage was total vertical integration.
But at Apple with the iPhone Job's knew he was outgunned by manufacturers and OEMs by a long shot.
And calculated that building fabs, plants, etc required a different set of skill sets and capitalization than he had at the time.
Where Jobs was a genius was that he maintained control over core manufacturing innovations (machining) and IP, while actually taking on very little manufacturing risk.
There's a really fascinating overview of this, published in 2011 and key quote
"China made Steve Jobs' revenge possible. Chinese OEMs could produce plenty of iPods, iPhones and iPads to meet demand, leaving Apple free not only to design as it wished, but to control what it designed."(1)
I wish for Tesla's sake that they'd taken a similar path, and I think a likely outcome on the downside of the Tesla story is a restructuring around a model like the above.
In the meantime I'm still rooting for them!
(1) https://www.thestreet.com/story/11737628/1/apple-and-the-ver...
Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent
#4“The existing line isn’t functional, it can’t build cars as planned and there isn’t room to get people into work stations to replace the non-functioning robots,” Warburton said in an email. “So here we have it—build cars manually in the parking lot.” This theory makes sense to me. Changing a over-automated line to one that is safe to use by humans must be way more expensive and time consuming then just rebuilding the…
I can’t imagine they’re going to have any kind of profit margins left over after all of this and once returns start coming in.
Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent
#5The Tesla story has effectively become a manufacturing story. Can they meet production targets? Can they maintain product quality while they scale? Will they run out of money before they solve the CapEx intensive, low margin problem of automobile manufacturing!!!? Despite the scrapiness of the "build a gigantic tent" story it's a bizarre risk. Musk's desire for full vertical integration obviously mirror's that of Ste…
Is it still advisable to "take a similar path" to that of Apple, given recent trade relations with countries like China and potential risks of a more insular world?
Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent
#6> "I don’t think anyone’s seen anything like this outside of the military trying to service vehicles in a war zone. I pity any customer taking delivery of one of these cars. The quality will be shocking"
Ouch, that is scathing, proof will be in the pudding though. If there are a lot of QA issues (which it seems reasonable to assume) then the recall rate + bad press might sink them. It's a scrappy (maybe desperate?) move, one which you would expect from an underdog, so good luck to them.
Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent
#7The previous word from Musk was that they just had some minor problems with their production line and were on track to ramp up to the normal production rate for the line. Starting up a new line for a new model sometimes takes quite a while, and Tesla had a much more optimistic schedule than is normal in the auto industry. But they seemed to be getting that under control.
Now they're operating a temporary manual assembly line in a tent? This indicates much bigger problems. And a coverup of them.
Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent
#8“The existing line isn’t functional, it can’t build cars as planned and there isn’t room to get people into work stations to replace the non-functioning robots,” Warburton said in an email. “So here we have it—build cars manually in the parking lot.” This theory makes sense to me. Changing a over-automated line to one that is safe to use by humans must be way more expensive and time consuming then just rebuilding the…
Why would a car built in a 40+ year old factory have lower defect rates than one built in a tent? Honest question here...
Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent
#9The Tesla story has effectively become a manufacturing story. Can they meet production targets? Can they maintain product quality while they scale? Will they run out of money before they solve the CapEx intensive, low margin problem of automobile manufacturing!!!? Despite the scrapiness of the "build a gigantic tent" story it's a bizarre risk. Musk's desire for full vertical integration obviously mirror's that of Ste…
Apple acquiring Tesla after they go bankrupt is the logical endgame here.
Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent
#10The Tesla story has effectively become a manufacturing story. Can they meet production targets? Can they maintain product quality while they scale? Will they run out of money before they solve the CapEx intensive, low margin problem of automobile manufacturing!!!? Despite the scrapiness of the "build a gigantic tent" story it's a bizarre risk. Musk's desire for full vertical integration obviously mirror's that of Ste…
Musk's desire for full vertical integration
One reason for Tesla's vertical integration may be that they want ordinary components like seats done Their Way, but they don't buy in big enough quantities to get major suppliers to do that. This is why you see a lot of high-end but low volume cars with Recaro-branded seats.