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Ask HN: What will be the future of Bitcoin?

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Re: Ask HN: What will be the future of Bitcoin?

#2
What do you think will be future of Bitcoin 4 or 5 years down the line. I am not talking about cryptocurrency or blockchain, just bitcoin specifically. After hitting heights it has became more of a commodity/stock rather than a currency.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future of Bitcoin?

#5
post #2

What do you think will be future of Bitcoin 4 or 5 years down the line. I am not talking about cryptocurrency or blockchain, just bitcoin specifically. After hitting heights it has became more of a commodity/stock rather than a currency.

I think it'll continue to be a very volatile store of value. For as long as there is greed in this world the price will continue to fluctuate. The key is that the supply gets cut in half every four years, so theoretically, as long as people continue to want to purchase bitcoin it will get more valuable with time.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future of Bitcoin?

#7
My prediction: Bitcoin will be remembered as the first successful application of a new wave in decentralized technologies. However Bitcoin itself will not be used except in museums, like the first Google server.

The revolution is how decentralized technologies from the past (BitTorrent, GNUtilla, DHT, etc) met with cryptography and game theory. Even more revolutionary is the wave of consumer-facing cryptographic identity tools, libraries, and browsers. By tying the notion of Public-Private keys to the metaphor of wallets (hence value) incentivizes end-users to keep and protect their keys. Decentralized Internet-level consensus combined with widely distributed cryptographic tools is huge!

Bitcoin's durability for years demonstrated the resiliency of these tools under the pressure of a hostile open Internet. It was the first serious test. And it passed with flying colors.

I DO believe that forks from the Bitcoin network will proliferate for a while. Bitcoin's technical and governance problems will doom it, but the value it has now will be distributed to finance other projects (e.g.: Ethereum) that will move the space and technology forward.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future of Bitcoin?

#8
I was watching Bloomberg Davos live streaming. Every major Bank’s CEO was asked about their take on Bitcoin. It was like hearing a chorus, everyone was praising the block chain but no one had anything positive to say about bitcoin apart from the fact that it worked. Some pointed out the inefficiency of bitcoin to scale, which was quite impressive.

So there you have it :-)

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future of Bitcoin?

#9

My prediction: Bitcoin will be remembered as the first successful application of a new wave in decentralized technologies. However Bitcoin itself will not be used except in museums, like the first Google server. The revolution is how decentralized technologies from the past (BitTorrent, GNUtilla, DHT, etc) met with cryptography and game theory. Even more revolutionary is the wave of consumer-facing cryptographic iden…

I think you're probably right with most of this.

Not sure about it passing with flying colors though. Currently, it is fundamentally failing at the job it was created to do.

Where I think it's been very valuable is that it has been properly stressed. We now have a good understanding regarding the parts that worked well, the parts that worked but were a bit crap and the parts that were a complete disaster.

Hopefully, when the infants and morons go find some other shiny, shiny, cooler heads will pick up the pieces and build Bitcoin 2 with some of these problems fixed.

My hope is that the hype train grinds to a halt rather than plunges off a cliff taking the idea with it. It was as good idea but with limitations that could, possibly, be rectified.

Re: Ask HN: What will be the future of Bitcoin?

#10
post #8

I was watching Bloomberg Davos live streaming. Every major Bank’s CEO was asked about their take on Bitcoin. It was like hearing a chorus, everyone was praising the block chain but no one had anything positive to say about bitcoin apart from the fact that it worked. Some pointed out the inefficiency of bitcoin to scale, which was quite impressive. So there you have it :-)

Will the lightning network fix some of the scaling issues?
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