Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars
theatlantic.com
Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars
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Re: Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars
#2Clearly the progress being made in the area of self-driving cars is undeniable. Seeing the articles and discussions crop up on a daily basis are making me wonder if we are headed for an AI Winter scenario in this area within the next decade or if this is the real deal and we will see self-driving cars at dealerships within 20 years.
This is so far from being my area of expertise. Just one observer's thoughts/questions. Insane how far we have come so quickly, at any rate.
Re: Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars
#3Clearly the progress being made in the area of self-driving cars is undeniable. Seeing the articles and discussions crop up on a daily basis are making me wonder if we are headed for an AI Winter scenario in this area within the next decade or if this is the real deal and we will see self-driving cars at dealerships within 20 years. This is so far from being my area of expertise. Just one observer's thoughts/question…
I don't disagree that AI is over-hyped. However, I think the research environment is not as likely to dry up this time.
That is because much of the machine learning research is coming from industry, particularly the mega-corps. And for extremely important disruptive events such as AI, they are willing to drop $$ into collecting a stable of research scientists to not fall behind in this space. So while the AI winter was driven by a drop in academic and government spending on research, I think our present situation is far less likely to result in a similar drying up.
Start ups could get hit, however.
Re: Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars
#4Clearly the progress being made in the area of self-driving cars is undeniable. Seeing the articles and discussions crop up on a daily basis are making me wonder if we are headed for an AI Winter scenario in this area within the next decade or if this is the real deal and we will see self-driving cars at dealerships within 20 years. This is so far from being my area of expertise. Just one observer's thoughts/question…
I don't disagree that AI is over-hyped. However, I think the research environment is not as likely to dry up this time. That is because much of the machine learning research is coming from industry, particularly the mega-corps. And for extremely important disruptive events such as AI, they are willing to drop $$ into collecting a stable of research scientists to not fall behind in this space. So while the AI winter w…
This is kind of what I figured. I get the distinct feeling that any startup that is unable to keep pace (or break new ground) with AI research & development is going to be hurting badly within the next five years. Uber is poaching AI and Robotics talent, read:profs, from Carnegie Mellon for a reason. It is a do-or-die situation it seems.
Re: Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars
#5Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't disagree that AI is over-hyped. However, I think the research environment is not as likely to dry up this time. That is because much of the machine learning research is coming from industry, particularly the mega-corps. And for extremely important disruptive events such as AI, they are willing to drop $$ into collecting a stable of research scientists to not fall behind in this space. So while the AI winter w…
This is kind of what I figured. I get the distinct feeling that any startup that is unable to keep pace (or break new ground) with AI research & development is going to be hurting badly within the next five years. Uber is poaching AI and Robotics talent, read:profs, from Carnegie Mellon for a reason. It is a do-or-die situation it seems.
Great comment. As a nit, I think "poaching" is a bad term. Uber offered to pay these professors what it viewed as what they were worth to it, which happened to be a lot more than what CMU was paying them. The professors accepted of their own free choice. I fail to see why such an action is termed "poaching". We have had enough problems with industry illegally conspiring (see Steve Jobs) to suppress developer pay through "anti-poaching" agreements, that the term "poaching" is long due for retirement in describing situations other than when animals are illegally killed.
Re: Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars
#6Now this is doing it right. That's how car companies do it. Big test tracks, and years of test track time, plus simulation and test rigs.
As the article points out, Google has far more autonomous driving miles than everybody else put together. They're on the hard cases, too; not just driving on freeways.
Re: Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars
#7Can they simulate a hurricane?
Re: Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars
#8Clearly the progress being made in the area of self-driving cars is undeniable. Seeing the articles and discussions crop up on a daily basis are making me wonder if we are headed for an AI Winter scenario in this area within the next decade or if this is the real deal and we will see self-driving cars at dealerships within 20 years. This is so far from being my area of expertise. Just one observer's thoughts/question…
> Seeing the articles and discussions crop up on a daily basis are making me wonder if we are headed for an AI Winter scenario in this area within the next decade or if this is the real deal and we will see self-driving cars at dealerships within 20 years.
It will be either one of those two, if it doesn't happen in the next 20 years I would bet against it happening at all until AGI is a reality, assuming it will ever happen in the first place.
But if it is possible with an incremental change to present day technology I fully expect it to happen and likely a lot faster than those 20 years. The economic incentives are too large to ignore and there are many players wealthy enough to finance such an incremental step.
Re: Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars
#9Can they simulate a hurricane?
They don't have to simulate one, merely reliably detect one and then refuse to drive. One of the most important lessons drilled into new drivers is that the best way to avoid accidents is to know when not to drive, self driving cars should not be an exception to that rule. If you are going to attempt to drive in hurricane you are essentially committing suicide, your best cause of action is to find a safe place to weather the storm. And if you really want to drive a self driving car might give you the option to override the safeties but those should only be used in actual emergencies, not just to putter around in really bad and possibly dangerous weather.
The same goes for dense fog, flooding and other situations where normal driving is no longer possible and/or responsible.
Re: Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars
#10Can they simulate a hurricane?
They don't have to simulate one, merely reliably detect one and then refuse to drive. One of the most important lessons drilled into new drivers is that the best way to avoid accidents is to know when not to drive, self driving cars should not be an exception to that rule. If you are going to attempt to drive in hurricane you are essentially committing suicide, your best cause of action is to find a safe place to wea…
And Waymo has already said that its cars will safely pull over when the weather gets too rough.