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Richard Feynman: Do We Live in A Cargo Cult Society?

calteches.library.caltech.edu

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Re: Richard Feynman: Do We Live in A Cargo Cult Society?

#2
Absolutely. The biggest offenders in software engineering are the things people integrate into their identity (i.e. "I'm an Agile manager", "I'm a Java architect", "I'm a Lisp hacker"). Another red flag is when there are no clear ways of testing a hypothesis (i.e. "NoSQL databases are better for this task", "This management methodology is best for our organization", "Outsourcing is great if you do so-and-so"). Most, if not all, of the opinions regarding industrial software engineering are based in anecdotal experience, without the tiniest thought given to controlled experiments. C'est la vie.

PS: what's most confusing, for me, is that it seems impossible to fix all of the variables necessary to answer a question like "what technology is best for this real-world problem?". I've yet to hear of any good ways of systematically measuring the effect of technology choices on programmer productivity.

Re: Richard Feynman: Do We Live in A Cargo Cult Society?

#3
post #2

Absolutely. The biggest offenders in software engineering are the things people integrate into their identity (i.e. "I'm an Agile manager", "I'm a Java architect", "I'm a Lisp hacker"). Another red flag is when there are no clear ways of testing a hypothesis (i.e. "NoSQL databases are better for this task", "This management methodology is best for our organization", "Outsourcing is great if you do so-and-so"). Most,…

We aren't doing physics here. If we can't observe the effects of something easily, it probably isn't that important.

Re: Richard Feynman: Do We Live in A Cargo Cult Society?

#4
post #2

Absolutely. The biggest offenders in software engineering are the things people integrate into their identity (i.e. "I'm an Agile manager", "I'm a Java architect", "I'm a Lisp hacker"). Another red flag is when there are no clear ways of testing a hypothesis (i.e. "NoSQL databases are better for this task", "This management methodology is best for our organization", "Outsourcing is great if you do so-and-so"). Most,…

This is also the reason that fields like nutrition science aren't generally all that useful if what you want to do something like offer diet advice. There are just too many shifting pieces to offer a systematic explanation of what's going on, at least with the experimental limits we have right now. You can only track so many variables at once.

Re: Richard Feynman: Do We Live in A Cargo Cult Society?

#5
post #2

Absolutely. The biggest offenders in software engineering are the things people integrate into their identity (i.e. "I'm an Agile manager", "I'm a Java architect", "I'm a Lisp hacker"). Another red flag is when there are no clear ways of testing a hypothesis (i.e. "NoSQL databases are better for this task", "This management methodology is best for our organization", "Outsourcing is great if you do so-and-so"). Most,…

This is also the reason that fields like nutrition science aren't generally all that useful if what you want to do something like offer diet advice. There are just too many shifting pieces to offer a systematic explanation of what's going on, at least with the experimental limits we have right now. You can only track so many variables at once.

This presents an interesting paradox though because at the end of the day a decision is required. Do I eat thing X or thing Y? And in what proportion? So when a set of things is not well understood but a decision is required, many non science strategies enter. So what can be done about this?

Re: Richard Feynman: Do We Live in A Cargo Cult Society?

#6
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is also the reason that fields like nutrition science aren't generally all that useful if what you want to do something like offer diet advice. There are just too many shifting pieces to offer a systematic explanation of what's going on, at least with the experimental limits we have right now. You can only track so many variables at once.

This presents an interesting paradox though because at the end of the day a decision is required. Do I eat thing X or thing Y? And in what proportion? So when a set of things is not well understood but a decision is required, many non science strategies enter. So what can be done about this?

You listen to science and not to crackpots who pretend to do science. Note that most advice regarding nutrition appearing in newspapers/blogs is total crap (as opposed to science).

If you can't distinguish science from crap (or can't be bothered to search for science) I would suggest you go with what seems reasonable to yourself.

Re: Richard Feynman: Do We Live in A Cargo Cult Society?

#8
I feel like we go round and round, dealing with the same problems that our ancestors had to deal with.

What I see here is part of the human condition. Pitfalls that "most" people are doomed to repeat. People are born with similar ways of thinking. I would propose that intuition is most always wrong. This is one reason we must educate people. Unfortunately, Memories and Communication are not precise. And I realize that all job fields require some sort of education or training.

There exist Complex ideas, technologies, material things (eg. biology): that are not comprehensible by one single person at a time. This is why we have groups of people that make products and not individuals.

Also people age, lose their usefulness. If only you could educate people who would increase their intelligence, and never die.

We live in a world of conclusions based on facts. A conclusion can be wrong, a fact cannot. News media, blogs, conversation are an exchange of conclusions. We can't communicate in just facts because we can't work with that much data at a time.

If only, one could link to another: a computer or another brain and be able to access knowledge and its accuracy. Is this possible, I don't know.

There are many problems worth fixing (but probably won't any time soon): a phonetic english alphabet with a different letter for each unique sound, Human Language to AI command compiler, optimize human mental process (engineer the human mind), build biospheres in inhospitable regions of the Earth, Fast internet that is cheap (100Mb/s (and I mean Megabit)) -> HD remote controlled robots, Tactile feedback for TV just like we have visual and sound, Engineer ways of rejuvenating/regeneration of humans so we can control our lifespan, Creating or finding what makes humans "sentient" or "have a soul" or "conscious" or "self-aware" -> Preserve this "consciousness" without a body for long trips of space flight

Re: Richard Feynman: Do We Live in A Cargo Cult Society?

#9
post #6
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This presents an interesting paradox though because at the end of the day a decision is required. Do I eat thing X or thing Y? And in what proportion? So when a set of things is not well understood but a decision is required, many non science strategies enter. So what can be done about this?

You listen to science and not to crackpots who pretend to do science. Note that most advice regarding nutrition appearing in newspapers/blogs is total crap (as opposed to science). If you can't distinguish science from crap (or can't be bothered to search for science) I would suggest you go with what seems reasonable to yourself.

That's the whole point though - science so far can't give much useful advice on what to eat, the topic is just too complex.

Science can give hedged explanations of what's been observed in relation to a particular nutrient, but that's a far shot from dietary advice.

What seems to end up happening is "we've observed a correlation between saturated fat consumption and heart disease" makes it out of the science world and gets turned into "avoid saturated fat at all costs" (and buy our replacement products). Then years later we realize it's a lot more complicated than that.

Re: Richard Feynman: Do We Live in A Cargo Cult Society?

#10
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is also the reason that fields like nutrition science aren't generally all that useful if what you want to do something like offer diet advice. There are just too many shifting pieces to offer a systematic explanation of what's going on, at least with the experimental limits we have right now. You can only track so many variables at once.

This presents an interesting paradox though because at the end of the day a decision is required. Do I eat thing X or thing Y? And in what proportion? So when a set of things is not well understood but a decision is required, many non science strategies enter. So what can be done about this?

you have to downgrade from induction to deduction. given the environment humans evolved in and what we know about primate digestive systems, what is unlikely to do me harm? answer: fruit, nuts, eggs. what is the biggest thing we do that monkeys don't? eat tons of processed grains.

simple answer: decrease processed carb intake, replace with fruit (primate diets are often 50% fruit). since eating no grains isn't an option, eat the ones considered healthier: corn, beans, brown rice.

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