I estimate human population to peak in 2065
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I estimate human population to peak in 2065
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Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065
#2Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065
#3What if people aren't dying in 2065?
Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065
#4The author's models for population growth are too rudimentary to be accurate over more than one or two decades. I find it really hard to believe that the growth rate for countries will maintain a constant value for the next few centuries.
Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065
#5Is this such a bad thing. Third world countries are becoming westernized giving us a continued growth of our markets even though the population might shrink.
Automation might make manual labor a thing of the past. We might not have enough jobs or natural resources to support a growing population.
Sadly I feel like studies like this don't take into consideration what a ww3 might do on the world's population long term. We are in an unprecedented time of peace which might not last to 2065.
Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065
#6What if people aren't dying in 2065?
Or at least, many fewer people. If we get to a point where we're extending the average lifespan by a year every 7 or 8 years, up to an average ceiling of around 100, that has big implications. Demographic trends can probably predict birth rates decently, but probably not the overall population 50 years into the future.
Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065
#7What if people aren't dying in 2065?
Medical care is unaffordable / unsustainable in the high HDI countries and doesn't exist in the low HDI countries.
Would have been interesting to look at the impact on the high HDI countries of mass invasion and demographic replacement. Many of those countries won't be in the "very high" category much longer. That will have the obvious impact on birth rates etc. Ditto long term trends in income inequality, in that population stats meant something when populations were more equal, but the average of oil and water isn't a salad dressing.
Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065
#8Is this such a bad thing. Third world countries are becoming westernized giving us a continued growth of our markets even though the population might shrink. Automation might make manual labor a thing of the past. We might not have enough jobs or natural resources to support a growing population. Sadly I feel like studies like this don't take into consideration what a ww3 might do on the world's population long term.…
>Third world countries are becoming westernized giving us a continued growth of our markets even though the population might shrink.
Which ones are those? The last thing the world needs is even more consumerist culture.
Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065
#9Is this such a bad thing. Third world countries are becoming westernized giving us a continued growth of our markets even though the population might shrink. Automation might make manual labor a thing of the past. We might not have enough jobs or natural resources to support a growing population. Sadly I feel like studies like this don't take into consideration what a ww3 might do on the world's population long term.…
Also revolution. Automation vs labor vs 1848 and all that. Where there is food vs where there are hungry mouths are not obligated to match up as they do now.
It would be interesting to analyze food production capability at various levels of petroleum production and then analyze the probability of those various levels of petroleum production. The days of powering your oxen with some acres of hay are long gone, takes quite a few calories of fossil fuels to generate each calorie of food.
Fossil water is another interesting concept. The east of the USA has more water than we know what to do with, we'll be OK, but the west currently lives off rapidly emptying aquifers, and once those are pumped dry, the population will revert to 1700s to 1800s levels, possibly a little lower. Farmable land minus aquifer irrigated land, will be an interesting math problem for our kids.
The roll forward of progress was heavily advertised and seems orderly. The roll back is going to be completely disorganized and chaotic.
Re: I estimate human population to peak in 2065
#10Is this such a bad thing. Third world countries are becoming westernized giving us a continued growth of our markets even though the population might shrink. Automation might make manual labor a thing of the past. We might not have enough jobs or natural resources to support a growing population. Sadly I feel like studies like this don't take into consideration what a ww3 might do on the world's population long term.…
Also revolution. Automation vs labor vs 1848 and all that. Where there is food vs where there are hungry mouths are not obligated to match up as they do now. It would be interesting to analyze food production capability at various levels of petroleum production and then analyze the probability of those various levels of petroleum production. The days of powering your oxen with some acres of hay are long gone, takes q…
Energy will be cheaper in 10 years than it has ever been in history.
Progress is pretty likely to continue.